Elche vs Barcelona: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 2Kick-off on August 23, 2026 at 07:30 PM (UTC)Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Elche
The Footlab model makes Barcelona the favourite at 55%, against 23% for a draw and 22% for Elche. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Elche vs Barcelona?
Barcelona is a heavy favourite: 2,384 Elo points against 2,050 — a 334-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Elche have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Barcelona have 11, 1 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruna(away) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Cordoba(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Al Ain(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Kaizer Chiefs(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 23, 2026 | Girona(away) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Al Ahly(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 16, 2026 | FC Basel 1893(away) | 5-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Udinese(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Nottingham Forest(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Birmingham(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Elche win(s), 0 draw(s), 6 Barcelona win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | Elche 1-3 Barcelona | La Liga |
| Nov 2, 2025 | Barcelona 3-1 Elche | La Liga |
| Apr 1, 2023 | Elche 0-4 Barcelona | La Liga |
| Sep 17, 2022 | Barcelona 3-0 Elche | La Liga |
| Mar 6, 2022 | Elche 1-2 Barcelona | La Liga |
| Dec 18, 2021 | Barcelona 3-2 Elche | La Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Elche score 1.5 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Barcelona score 2.1 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elche | 1.5 | 1.3 | 2 | 12/15 | 9/15 |
| Barcelona | 2.1 | 1.0 | 4 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Elche | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Who is out?
6 reported absence(s) for this match.
- F. de JongBarcelonaOut(Knee Injury)
- R. BardghjiBarcelonaOut(Knee Injury)
- Adam BoayarElcheOut(Muscle Injury)
- A. OsorioElcheOut(Muscle Injury)
- G. DianganaElcheDoubtful(Knee Injury)
- Yago AlonsoElcheOut(Knee Injury)
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Elche vs Barcelona?
- The Footlab model makes Barcelona the favourite at 55%, against 23% for a draw and 22% for Elche.
- Where and when is Elche vs Barcelona played?
- Elche vs Barcelona is played on August 23, 2026 at 07:30 PM (UTC) at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.