Valencia vs Celta Vigo: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 2Kick-off on August 22, 2026 at 05:30 PM (UTC)Estadio de Mestalla, Valencia
The Footlab model makes Valencia the favourite at 46%, against 27% for a draw and 27% for Celta Vigo. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Valencia vs Celta Vigo?
A very open match: only 17 Elo points separate Valencia (2,101) and Celta Vigo (2,118).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Valencia have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Celta Vigo have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Newcastle(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Stoke City(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Derby(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Castellón(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Eldense(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Napoli(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Sassuolo(away) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Academico Viseu(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Sporting Gijon(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | SC Braga(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Valencia win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Celta Vigo win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2026 | Valencia 2-3 Celta Vigo | La Liga |
| Jan 3, 2026 | Celta Vigo 4-1 Valencia | La Liga |
| Feb 2, 2025 | Valencia 2-1 Celta Vigo | La Liga |
| Aug 23, 2024 | Celta Vigo 3-1 Valencia | La Liga |
| May 26, 2024 | Celta Vigo 2-2 Valencia | La Liga |
| Jan 17, 2024 | Valencia 1-3 Celta Vigo | Copa del Rey |
Last archived meeting: Valencia vs Celta Vigo on Apr 5, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Valencia score 1.5 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Celta Vigo score 1.3 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
| Celta Vigo | 1.3 | 1.5 | 3 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Valencia sit 9th in La Liga (49 points from 38 matches) and Celta Vigo sit 6th (54 points from 38 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Celta Vigo | 38 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 53 | 48 | 54 |
| 9 | Valencia | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 46 | 55 | 49 |
Who is out?
7 reported absence(s) for this match.
- Alberto MaríValenciaOut(Leg Injury)
- CopeteValenciaOut(Ankle Injury)
- D. FoulquierValenciaDoubtful(Knee Injury)
- Diego LópezValenciaOut(Knee Injury)
- Luis RiojaValenciaDoubtful(Muscle Injury)
- Sergi CanósValenciaOut(Knee Injury)
- M. VecinoCelta VigoOut(Knee Injury)
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Valencia vs Celta Vigo?
- The Footlab model makes Valencia the favourite at 46%, against 27% for a draw and 27% for Celta Vigo.
- Where and when is Valencia vs Celta Vigo played?
- Valencia vs Celta Vigo is played on August 22, 2026 at 05:30 PM (UTC) at Estadio de Mestalla, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.