Athletic Club vs Sevilla: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 2Kick-off on August 22, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)San Mamés Barria, Bilbao
The Footlab model makes Athletic Club the favourite at 58%, against 24% for a draw and 17% for Sevilla. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Athletic Club vs Sevilla?
A very open match: only 34 Elo points separate Athletic Club (2,072) and Sevilla (2,038).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Athletic Club have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Sevilla have 8, 1 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Zaragoza(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Atalanta(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Marseille(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Burgos(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Racing Santander(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano(home) | 2-1 | La Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Bayer Leverkusen(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Utrecht(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | NEC Nijmegen(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 26, 2026 | AD Ceuta FC(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Athletic Club win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Sevilla win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | Sevilla 2-1 Athletic Club | La Liga |
| Aug 17, 2025 | Athletic Club 3-2 Sevilla | La Liga |
| Mar 16, 2025 | Sevilla 0-1 Athletic Club | La Liga |
| Sep 29, 2024 | Athletic Club 1-1 Sevilla | La Liga |
| May 19, 2024 | Athletic Club 2-0 Sevilla | La Liga |
| Jan 4, 2024 | Sevilla 0-2 Athletic Club | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Sevilla vs Athletic Club on Jan 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Athletic Club score 2.3 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Sevilla score 1.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club | 2.3 | 1.5 | 5 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
| Sevilla | 1.1 | 1.1 | 3 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Sevilla | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
Who is out?
10 reported absence(s) for this match.
- Beñat PradosAthletic ClubOut(Inactive)
- Dani VivianAthletic ClubOut(Hamstring Injury)
- GorosabelAthletic ClubOut(Muscle Injury)
- Nico SerranoAthletic ClubOut(Coach's decision)
- Unai EguíluzAthletic ClubOut(Knee Injury)
- Unai VencedorAthletic ClubOut(Inactive)
- Alfon GonzálezSevillaOut(Muscle Injury)
- Kike SalasSevillaOut(Red Card)
- MarcãoSevillaOut(Foot Injury)
- R. VargasSevillaOut(Injury)
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Athletic Club vs Sevilla?
- The Footlab model makes Athletic Club the favourite at 58%, against 24% for a draw and 17% for Sevilla.
- Where and when is Athletic Club vs Sevilla played?
- Athletic Club vs Sevilla is played on August 22, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at San Mamés Barria, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.