Estac Troyes vs Lorient: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 23Kick-off on March 6, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stade de l'Aube, Troyes
The Footlab AI model makes Estac Troyes the favourite at 42%, against 26% for a draw and 32% for Lorient. The most likely score is 1-1. If Estac Troyes wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Estac Troyes vs Lorient?
A very open match: only 82 Elo points separate Estac Troyes (1,933) and Lorient (2,015).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Estac Troyes vs Lorient
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Estac Troyes
4-2-3-1- 9J. Le Douaron
- 8M. Diop
- 17A. Mille
- 29D. Karim
- 11I. Gomis
- 7K. Diawara
- 6A. Monfray
- 4M. Diaz
- 2L. Maronnier
- 5P. Gozzi
- 33P. Beach
Lorient
3-4-2-1- 42M. Kone
- 17J. Makengo
- 43K. Kouassi
- 8N. Cadiou
- 33G. Bernardeau
- 2A. Georgen
- 10I. Jensen
- 32N. Adjei
- 3M. Talbi
- 20D. Sylla
- 38Y. Mvogo
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 12:05 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Estac Troyes have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Lorient have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Marseille(home) | 0-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Dijon(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Angers(away) | 0-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Lille(away) | 0-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Strasbourg(home) | 2-6 | Ligue 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Paris FC(home) | 1-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Le Mans(away) | 1-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Toulouse(home) | 2-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Lens(away) | 1-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Estac Troyes(home) | 1-2 | Ligue 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Estac Troyes win, 2 draws, 3 Lorient wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | Lorient 1-2 Estac Troyes | Ligue 1 |
| Feb 14, 2025 | Estac Troyes 0-1 Lorient | Ligue 2 |
| Dec 6, 2024 | Lorient 2-0 Estac Troyes | Ligue 2 |
| Mar 12, 2023 | Lorient 2-0 Estac Troyes | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 23, 2022 | Estac Troyes 2-2 Lorient | Ligue 1 |
| May 21, 2022 | Lorient 1-1 Estac Troyes | Ligue 1 |
Last archived meeting: Lorient vs Estac Troyes on Aug 29, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Estac Troyes score 1.6 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Lorient score 1.6 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estac Troyes | 1.6 | 1.3 | 5 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Lorient | 1.6 | 1.2 | 6 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Estac Troyes sit 17th in Ligue 1 (4 points from 6 matches) and Lorient sit 8th (8 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Lorient | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 8 |
| 17 | Estac Troyes | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 4 |
A question about Estac Troyes vs Lorient?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Estac Troyes vs Lorient?
- The Footlab AI model makes Estac Troyes the favourite at 42%, against 26% for a draw and 32% for Lorient.
- Where and when is Estac Troyes vs Lorient played?
- Estac Troyes vs Lorient is played on March 6, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stade de l'Aube, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.