Lorient vs Estac Troyes: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 2Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat, Lorient
The Footlab model makes Lorient the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Estac Troyes. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 19, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lorient vs Estac Troyes?
A very open match: only 41 Elo points separate Lorient (1,996) and Estac Troyes (1,956).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lorient have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Estac Troyes have 10, 3 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | SV Elversberg(away) | 1-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Angers(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 4, 2026 | UNFP(home) | 5-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Guingamp(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Nantes(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Panetolikos(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Auxerre(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Chasselay MDA(home) | 5-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Grenoble(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | RED Star FC 93(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Lorient win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Estac Troyes win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2025 | Estac Troyes 0-1 Lorient | Ligue 2 |
| Dec 6, 2024 | Lorient 2-0 Estac Troyes | Ligue 2 |
| Mar 12, 2023 | Lorient 2-0 Estac Troyes | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 23, 2022 | Estac Troyes 2-2 Lorient | Ligue 1 |
| May 21, 2022 | Lorient 1-1 Estac Troyes | Ligue 1 |
| Dec 1, 2021 | Estac Troyes 2-0 Lorient | Ligue 1 |
Last archived meeting: Estac Troyes vs Lorient on Feb 14, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Lorient score 1.7 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Estac Troyes score 2.2 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorient | 1.7 | 1.3 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Estac Troyes | 2.2 | 0.8 | 6 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Lorient | 34 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 48 | 51 | 45 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lorient vs Estac Troyes?
- The Footlab model makes Lorient the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Estac Troyes.
- Where and when is Lorient vs Estac Troyes played?
- Lorient vs Estac Troyes is played on August 29, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.