Lille vs Marseille: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 23Kick-off on March 6, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Villeneuve d'Ascq
The Footlab model makes Lille the favourite at 50%, against 25% for a draw and 25% for Marseille. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lille vs Marseille?
A very open match: only 15 Elo points separate Lille (2,104) and Marseille (2,088).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lille have 9 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats; Marseille have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Angers(away) | 2-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Everton(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Hamburger SV(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | OH Leuven(away) | 6-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | RAAL La Louvière(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Strasbourg(home) | 4-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Atletico Madrid(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Athletic Club(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Nimes(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 17, 2026 | Rennes(home) | 3-1 | Ligue 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Lille win(s), 3 draw(s), 0 Marseille win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | Marseille 1-2 Lille | Ligue 1 |
| Dec 5, 2025 | Lille 1-0 Marseille | Ligue 1 |
| May 4, 2025 | Lille 1-1 Marseille | Ligue 1 |
| Jan 14, 2025 | Marseille 1-1 Lille | Coupe de France |
| Dec 14, 2024 | Marseille 1-1 Lille | Ligue 1 |
| Apr 5, 2024 | Lille 3-1 Marseille | Ligue 1 |
How many goals should we expect?
Lille score 1.9 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Marseille score 1.6 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille | 1.9 | 0.9 | 7 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Marseille | 1.6 | 1.2 | 4 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lille sit 3rd in Ligue 1 (3 points from 1 matches) and Marseille sit 1st (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marseille | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Lille | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lille vs Marseille?
- The Footlab model makes Lille the favourite at 50%, against 25% for a draw and 25% for Marseille.
- Where and when is Lille vs Marseille played?
- Lille vs Marseille is played on March 6, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.