Arouca vs Rio Ave: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 12Kick-off on November 29, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Arouca
The Footlab model makes Arouca the favourite at 50%, against 27% for a draw and 23% for Rio Ave. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Arouca vs Rio Ave?
A very open match: only 64 Elo points separate Arouca (2,063) and Rio Ave (1,999).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arouca have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Rio Ave have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | FC Porto(away) | 0-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Moreirense(home) | 4-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Guimaraes(away) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Lusitânia Lourosa(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Santa Clara(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Estoril(away) | 2-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | FC Porto(home) | 0-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | GIL Vicente(away) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Tondela(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Al-Ahli Jeddah(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Arouca win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Rio Ave win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | Rio Ave 0-3 Arouca | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 23, 2025 | Arouca 3-3 Rio Ave | Primeira Liga |
| Feb 10, 2025 | Arouca 1-1 Rio Ave | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 1, 2024 | Rio Ave 1-0 Arouca | Primeira Liga |
| Jul 20, 2024 | Rio Ave 3-2 Arouca | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 19, 2024 | Rio Ave 1-1 Arouca | Primeira Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Arouca score 1.4 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Rio Ave score 1.4 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arouca | 1.4 | 0.9 | 7 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
| Rio Ave | 1.4 | 1.3 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Arouca sit 5th in Primeira Liga (6 points from 3 matches) and Rio Ave sit 10th (3 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Arouca | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 6 |
| 10 | Rio Ave | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Arouca vs Rio Ave?
- The Footlab model makes Arouca the favourite at 50%, against 27% for a draw and 23% for Rio Ave.
- Where and when is Arouca vs Rio Ave played?
- Arouca vs Rio Ave is played on November 29, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal de Arouca, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.