Arouca vs Rio Ave: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 12Kick-off on November 29, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Arouca
The Footlab AI model makes Arouca the favourite at 52%, against 25% for a draw and 23% for Rio Ave. The most likely score is 1-1. If Arouca wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Arouca vs Rio Ave?
On Elo ratings, Arouca has 2,154 points and Rio Ave 2,065.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Arouca vs Rio Ave
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Arouca
4-2-3-1- 17Barbero
- 7N. Djouahra
- 19A. Trezza
- 8T. Fukui
- 6E. van Ee
- 10Pablo Gozálbez
- 28Tiago Esgaio
- 3José Fontán
- 18O. Lebedenko
- 15Javi Sánchez
- 12I. de Arruabarrena
Rio Ave
4-2-3-1- 11J. Blesa
- 7Diogo Bezerra
- 44T. Nikitscher
- 5A. Ntoi
- 79M. Patricio
- 30R. Galčík
- 23F. Petrasso
- 24Pedro Amaral
- 20João Tomé
- 3S. Garcia
- 99E. van der Gouw
Computed on October 8, 2026 at 11:23 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arouca have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Rio Ave have 3, 5 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Sporting CP(away) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Santa Clara(home) | 1-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Estoril(away) | 0-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Maritimo(home) | 2-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 23, 2026 | FC Porto(away) | 0-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Alverca(away) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Estrela(home) | 3-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Santa Clara(away) | 0-4 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Sporting CP(home) | 0-4 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Estoril(away) | 2-0 | Primeira Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Arouca win, 3 draws, 2 Rio Ave wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | Rio Ave 0-3 Arouca | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 23, 2025 | Arouca 3-3 Rio Ave | Primeira Liga |
| Feb 10, 2025 | Arouca 1-1 Rio Ave | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 1, 2024 | Rio Ave 1-0 Arouca | Primeira Liga |
| Jul 20, 2024 | Rio Ave 3-2 Arouca | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 19, 2024 | Rio Ave 1-1 Arouca | Primeira Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Arouca score 1.4 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Rio Ave score 1.1 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arouca | 1.4 | 1.1 | 6 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Rio Ave | 1.1 | 1.8 | 3 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Arouca sit 5th in Primeira Liga (11 points from 7 matches) and Rio Ave sit 16th (4 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Arouca | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 11 |
| 16 | Rio Ave | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 4 |
A question about Arouca vs Rio Ave?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Arouca vs Rio Ave?
- The Footlab AI model makes Arouca the favourite at 52%, against 25% for a draw and 23% for Rio Ave.
- Where and when is Arouca vs Rio Ave played?
- Arouca vs Rio Ave is played on November 29, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal de Arouca, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.