Match

Ethiopian Medhin vs Mekelakeya: prediction and stats

Premier LeagueRegular Season - 4Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Abebe Bikila Stadium, Addis Ababa

Ethiopian MedhinMekelakeya

The Footlab AI model makes Mekelakeya the favourite at 37%, against 33% for a draw and 30% for Ethiopian Medhin. The most likely score is 0-0. If Mekelakeya wins, the most likely score is 0-1.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.9% of the 1,758 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Ethiopian Medhin vs Mekelakeya?

A very open match: only 11 Elo points separate Ethiopian Medhin (1,590) and Mekelakeya (1,579).

30%33%37%
Ethiopian Medhin winDrawMekelakeya win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Ethiopian Medhin vs Mekelakeya

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Ethiopian Medhin

Not enough data to predict the Ethiopian Medhin lineup.

Mekelakeya

4-3-3
  1. 27A. Yigzaw
  2. 14Mohammed Abera
  3. 35C. Kudjoe
  1. 7Bereket Desta Dana
  2. 10Abdulkarim Worku
  3. 19C. Gugsa
  1. 6G. Hagos
  2. 34N. Hailu
  3. 2F. Jemal
  4. 22C. Menberu
  1. 1Nafian Legason Alionzi

Computed on October 9, 2026 at 02:31 AM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ethiopian Medhin have 5 wins, 7 draws and 3 defeats; Mekelakeya have 5, 7 and 3.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Ethiopian Medhin
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Jul 3, 2026Fasil Ketema(away)0-1Premier League
Jun 27, 2026Suhul Shire(home)0-3Premier League
Jun 21, 2026Mekelakeya(away)0-1Premier League
Jun 14, 2026Dire Dawa Kenema(home)1-0Premier League
May 30, 2026Welwalo Adigrat Uni(away)1-1Premier League
Mekelakeya
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Jul 4, 2026Hadiya Hosaena(home)0-0Premier League
Jun 28, 2026Sheger Ketema(away)0-2Premier League
Jun 21, 2026Ethiopian Medhin(home)1-0Premier League
Jun 14, 2026Kedus Giorgis(away)0-3Premier League
May 28, 2026Arba Minch Kenema(home)1-2Premier League

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Ethiopian Medhin wins, 1 draw, 3 Mekelakeya wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Jun 21, 2026Mekelakeya 1-0 Ethiopian MedhinPremier League
Jan 26, 2026Ethiopian Medhin 0-1 MekelakeyaPremier League
Jun 10, 2025Ethiopian Medhin 2-0 MekelakeyaPremier League
Dec 11, 2024Mekelakeya 0-0 Ethiopian MedhinPremier League
Apr 13, 2024Mekelakeya 1-2 Ethiopian MedhinPremier League
Dec 1, 2023Ethiopian Medhin 0-1 MekelakeyaPremier League

Last archived meeting: Mekelakeya vs Ethiopian Medhin on Jun 21, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Ethiopian Medhin score 1.0 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Mekelakeya score 1.0 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 31% probability of over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Ethiopian Medhin1.00.948/154/15
Mekelakeya1.00.876/155/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Ethiopian Medhin sit 1st in Premier League (73 points from 34 matches) and Mekelakeya sit 10th (45 points from 34 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
1Ethiopian Medhin342275491573
10Mekelakeya3410159363245

A question about Ethiopian Medhin vs Mekelakeya?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

Ask the AI a questionOpen the full match card in the app

Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Ethiopian Medhin vs Mekelakeya?
The Footlab AI model makes Mekelakeya the favourite at 37%, against 33% for a draw and 30% for Ethiopian Medhin.
Where and when is Ethiopian Medhin vs Mekelakeya played?
Ethiopian Medhin vs Mekelakeya is played on October 24, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Abebe Bikila Stadium, in the Premier League.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 31% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.9% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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Next match: Ethiopian Medhin and Mekelakeya

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