Étoile Carouge vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy: prediction and stats
Challenge LeagueRegular Season - 15Kick-off on November 28, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stade de la Fontenette, Carouge
The Footlab model makes Stade Lausanne-Ouchy the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Étoile Carouge. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Étoile Carouge vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
A very open match: only 57 Elo points separate Étoile Carouge (1,802) and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy (1,859).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Étoile Carouge have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Stade Nyonnais(away) | 0-0 | Challenge League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Collex-Bossy(away) | 2-0 | Schweizer Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Neuchatel Xamax FC(home) | 0-1 | Challenge League |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Yverdon Sport(away) | 1-1 | Challenge League |
| Jul 24, 2026 | FC Aarau(home) | 3-0 | Challenge League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Neuchatel Xamax FC(away) | 2-1 | Challenge League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Italien(away) | 8-1 | Schweizer Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Rapperswil(home) | 2-0 | Challenge League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | FC Aarau(away) | 1-1 | Challenge League |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Stade Nyonnais(home) | 2-0 | Challenge League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Étoile Carouge win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 10, 2026 | Étoile Carouge 1-1 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | Challenge League |
| Feb 28, 2026 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 0-1 Étoile Carouge | Challenge League |
| Dec 19, 2025 | Étoile Carouge 1-2 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | Challenge League |
| Aug 30, 2025 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 2-0 Étoile Carouge | Challenge League |
| May 2, 2025 | Étoile Carouge 1-2 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | Challenge League |
| Jan 31, 2025 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1-0 Étoile Carouge | Challenge League |
Last archived meeting: Étoile Carouge vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy on Apr 10, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Étoile Carouge score 1.3 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Stade Lausanne-Ouchy score 2.1 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Étoile Carouge | 1.3 | 1.9 | 4 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 2.1 | 1.5 | 3 | 8/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Étoile Carouge sit 6th in Challenge League (5 points from 4 matches) and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy sit 1st (10 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 10 |
| 6 | Étoile Carouge | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 5 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Étoile Carouge vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
- The Footlab model makes Stade Lausanne-Ouchy the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Étoile Carouge.
- Where and when is Étoile Carouge vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy played?
- Étoile Carouge vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy is played on November 28, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stade de la Fontenette, in the Challenge League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.