Europa vs Magpies: prediction and stats
Premier DivisionRegular Season - 1Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC)Victoria Stadium, Gibraltar
The Footlab model makes Europa the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Magpies. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Europa vs Magpies?
Europa starts as the favourite with a 131-point Elo edge (1,466 vs 1,334).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Europa have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Magpies have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Glacis United(home) | 2-2 | Premier Division |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Shkendija(away) | 0-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 9, 2026 | Shkendija(home) | 0-5 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Mons Calpe(home) | 4-1 | Premier Division |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Lincoln Red Imps FC(away) | 0-2 | Premier Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Lions Gibraltar(away) | 1-1 | Premier Division |
| Mar 5, 2026 | Lincoln Red Imps FC(home) | 1-2 | Premier Division |
| Feb 20, 2026 | Europa Point(away) | 3-0 | Premier Division |
| Feb 6, 2026 | Lynx(home) | 0-0 | Premier Division |
| Feb 1, 2026 | Hound Dogs(away) | 0-0 | Rock Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Europa win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Magpies win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2025 | Europa 2-1 Magpies | Premier Division |
| Sep 12, 2025 | Magpies 1-2 Europa | Premier Division |
| May 4, 2025 | Europa 4-2 Magpies | Premier Division |
| Jan 11, 2025 | Europa 2-0 Magpies | Premier Division |
| Sep 28, 2024 | Magpies 0-0 Europa | Premier Division |
| Feb 11, 2024 | Europa 4-3 Magpies | Premier Division |
How many goals should we expect?
Europa score 1.9 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Magpies score 1.2 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Europa | 1.9 | 1.3 | 6 | 4/15 | 9/15 |
| Magpies | 1.2 | 0.9 | 6 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Europa sit 2nd in Premier Division (1 points from 1 matches) and Magpies sit 4th (1 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Europa | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 4 | Magpies | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Europa vs Magpies?
- The Footlab model makes Europa the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Magpies.
- Where and when is Europa vs Magpies played?
- Europa vs Magpies is played on September 5, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at Victoria Stadium, in the Premier Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.