Excelsior '31 vs Sportlust '46: prediction and stats
Derde DivisieRegular Season - 25Kick-off on March 6, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Sportpark De Koerbelt, Rijssen
The Footlab model makes Excelsior '31 the favourite at 50%, against 24% for a draw and 27% for Sportlust '46. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Excelsior '31 vs Sportlust '46?
A very open match: only 2 Elo points separate Excelsior '31 (1,737) and Sportlust '46 (1,738).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Excelsior '31 have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Sportlust '46 have 3, 4 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Staphorst(away) | 4-2 | Derde Divisie |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Eemdijk(home) | 4-0 | Derde Divisie |
| May 23, 2026 | URK(away) | 2-1 | Derde Divisie |
| May 16, 2026 | Staphorst(home) | 3-1 | Derde Divisie |
| May 9, 2026 | TEC(away) | 1-1 | Derde Divisie |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Purmersteijn(home) | 1-1 | Derde Divisie |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Sparta Nijkerk(away) | 3-3 | Derde Divisie |
| May 23, 2026 | Harkemase Boys(away) | 1-4 | Derde Divisie |
| May 16, 2026 | Sparta Nijkerk(home) | 0-2 | Derde Divisie |
| May 9, 2026 | Hercules(home) | 0-2 | Derde Divisie |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Excelsior '31 win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Sportlust '46 win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2026 | Sportlust '46 3-0 Excelsior '31 | Derde Divisie |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Excelsior '31 1-2 Sportlust '46 | Derde Divisie |
| Apr 12, 2025 | Excelsior '31 1-3 Sportlust '46 | Derde Divisie |
| Nov 9, 2024 | Sportlust '46 1-3 Excelsior '31 | Derde Divisie |
| Mar 4, 2023 | Sportlust '46 0-0 Excelsior '31 | Derde Divisie |
| Sep 17, 2022 | Excelsior '31 0-3 Sportlust '46 | Derde Divisie |
Last archived meeting: Sportlust '46 vs Excelsior '31 on Mar 28, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Excelsior '31 score 1.8 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Sportlust '46 score 1.3 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Excelsior '31 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 3 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Sportlust '46 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 3 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Excelsior '31 sit 1st in Derde Divisie (6 points from 2 matches) and Sportlust '46 sit 11th (2 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Excelsior '31 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 6 |
| 11 | Sportlust '46 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Excelsior '31 vs Sportlust '46?
- The Footlab model makes Excelsior '31 the favourite at 50%, against 24% for a draw and 27% for Sportlust '46.
- Where and when is Excelsior '31 vs Sportlust '46 played?
- Excelsior '31 vs Sportlust '46 is played on March 6, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Sportpark De Koerbelt, in the Derde Divisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.