Excelsior vs NEC Nijmegen: prediction and stats
EredivisieRegular Season - 26Kick-off on March 14, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Rotterdam
The Footlab AI model makes NEC Nijmegen the favourite at 48%, against 23% for a draw and 29% for Excelsior. The most likely score is 1-1. If NEC Nijmegen wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,460 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Excelsior vs NEC Nijmegen?
A very open match: only 72 Elo points separate Excelsior (1,912) and NEC Nijmegen (1,984).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Excelsior vs NEC Nijmegen
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Excelsior
4-3-3- 19D. Garden
- 30Á. Þorsteinsson
- 7A. Sliti
- 3R. Meissen
- 20L. Hartjes
- 8I. Yegoian
- 14J. Plug
- 4C. Widell
- 2Eric Emanuel da Silva Moreira
- 15S. Janssen
- 1S. van Gassel
NEC Nijmegen
3-4-2-1- 30B. Linssen
- 9T. Chery
- 20N. Lebreton
- 6D. Nejašmić
- 10D. Tadić
- 21T. Storm
- 34Kevin Kers
- 73Gabriel Brás
- 4P. Schuurs
- 24Deveron Fonville
- 1G. Crettaz
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 06:59 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Excelsior have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; NEC Nijmegen have 3, 5 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Groningen(home) | 1-5 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Ajax(away) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Utrecht(home) | 1-2 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 8, 2026 | NEC Nijmegen(away) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Willem II(away) | 3-0 | Eredivisie |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | Levski Sofia(home) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Ajax(away) | 1-1 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 20, 2026 | GO Ahead Eagles(home) | 1-1 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Juventus(away) | 0-5 | UEFA Europa League |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Cambuur(away) | 0-3 | Eredivisie |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Excelsior win, 1 draw, 4 NEC Nijmegen wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 8, 2026 | NEC Nijmegen 2-2 Excelsior | Eredivisie |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Excelsior 0-2 NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie |
| Aug 9, 2025 | NEC Nijmegen 5-0 Excelsior | Eredivisie |
| May 6, 2024 | Excelsior 0-3 NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie |
| Aug 13, 2023 | NEC Nijmegen 3-4 Excelsior | Eredivisie |
| Feb 19, 2023 | Excelsior 0-3 NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie |
Last archived meeting: NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior on Sep 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Excelsior score 2.5 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; NEC Nijmegen score 1.2 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Excelsior | 2.5 | 1.6 | 3 | 12/15 | 13/15 |
| NEC Nijmegen | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Excelsior sit 9th in Eredivisie (11 points from 8 matches) and NEC Nijmegen sit 11th (9 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Excelsior | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 14 | 11 |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 14 | 9 |
A question about Excelsior vs NEC Nijmegen?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Excelsior vs NEC Nijmegen?
- The Footlab AI model makes NEC Nijmegen the favourite at 48%, against 23% for a draw and 29% for Excelsior.
- Where and when is Excelsior vs NEC Nijmegen played?
- Excelsior vs NEC Nijmegen is played on March 14, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, in the Eredivisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.