NEC Nijmegen vs Ajax: prediction and stats
EredivisieRegular Season - 27Kick-off on March 21, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Goffertstadion, Nijmegen
The Footlab model makes NEC Nijmegen the favourite at 41%, against 24% for a draw and 35% for Ajax. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win NEC Nijmegen vs Ajax?
A very open match: only 59 Elo points separate NEC Nijmegen (2,051) and Ajax (2,110).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, NEC Nijmegen have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Ajax have 9, 5 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Bodo/Glimt(home) | 1-3 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Willem II(away) | 4-1 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Olympiakos Piraeus(home) | 2-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Telstar(home) | 1-2 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Olympiakos Piraeus(away) | 0-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | FC Sion(away) | 4-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Heerenveen(home) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Shelbourne(away) | 2-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | PEC Zwolle(away) | 2-0 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Shelbourne(home) | 3-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 NEC Nijmegen win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Ajax win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2026 | Ajax 1-1 NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie |
| Dec 20, 2025 | NEC Nijmegen 2-2 Ajax | Eredivisie |
| May 11, 2025 | Ajax 0-3 NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie |
| Dec 1, 2024 | NEC Nijmegen 1-2 Ajax | Eredivisie |
| Feb 18, 2024 | Ajax 2-2 NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie |
| Dec 3, 2023 | NEC Nijmegen 1-2 Ajax | Eredivisie |
How many goals should we expect?
NEC Nijmegen score 1.7 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Ajax score 2.1 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEC Nijmegen | 1.7 | 1.4 | 3 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
| Ajax | 2.1 | 0.9 | 5 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
NEC Nijmegen sit 11th in Eredivisie (3 points from 2 matches) and Ajax sit 6th (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Ajax | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for NEC Nijmegen vs Ajax?
- The Footlab model makes NEC Nijmegen the favourite at 41%, against 24% for a draw and 35% for Ajax.
- Where and when is NEC Nijmegen vs Ajax played?
- NEC Nijmegen vs Ajax is played on March 21, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Goffertstadion, in the Eredivisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.