NEC Nijmegen vs Ajax: prediction and stats
EredivisieRegular Season - 27Kick-off on March 21, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Goffertstadion, Nijmegen
The Footlab AI model makes Ajax the favourite at 42%, against 23% for a draw and 35% for NEC Nijmegen. The most likely score is 1-1. If Ajax wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,718 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 18, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win NEC Nijmegen vs Ajax?
Ajax starts as the favourite with a 106-point Elo edge (2,090 vs 1,984).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for NEC Nijmegen vs Ajax
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
NEC Nijmegen
3-4-2-1- 30B. Linssen
- 9T. Chery
- 20N. Lebreton
- 6D. Nejašmić
- 10D. Tadić
- 21T. Storm
- 34Kevin Kers
- 73Gabriel Brás
- 4P. Schuurs
- 24Deveron Fonville
- 1G. Crettaz
Ajax
4-3-3- 10O. Gloukh
- 38Marcos Leonardo
- 99T. Arokodare
- 8J. Brandt
- 24J. Mokio
- 4S. Amrabat
- 2Lucas Rosa
- 5O. Wijndal
- 30A. Bouwman
- 15Y. Baas
- 1M. ter Stegen
Computed on October 18, 2026 at 06:24 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, NEC Nijmegen have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Ajax have 9, 4 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | Levski Sofia(home) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Ajax(away) | 1-1 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 20, 2026 | GO Ahead Eagles(home) | 1-1 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Juventus(away) | 0-5 | UEFA Europa League |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Cambuur(away) | 0-3 | Eredivisie |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Groningen(away) | 5-2 | Eredivisie |
| Oct 15, 2026 | HNK Hajduk Split(away) | 1-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | NEC Nijmegen(home) | 1-1 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Excelsior(home) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Willem II(home) | 5-1 | Eredivisie |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 NEC Nijmegen win, 4 draws, 1 Ajax win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Ajax 1-1 NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie |
| Feb 21, 2026 | Ajax 1-1 NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie |
| Dec 20, 2025 | NEC Nijmegen 2-2 Ajax | Eredivisie |
| May 11, 2025 | Ajax 0-3 NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie |
| Dec 1, 2024 | NEC Nijmegen 1-2 Ajax | Eredivisie |
| Feb 18, 2024 | Ajax 2-2 NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie |
How many goals should we expect?
NEC Nijmegen score 1.2 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Ajax score 3.0 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 70% probability of over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEC Nijmegen | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
| Ajax | 3.0 | 1.5 | 2 | 13/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
NEC Nijmegen sit 11th in Eredivisie (9 points from 8 matches) and Ajax sit 5th (15 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Ajax | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 22 | 10 | 15 |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 14 | 9 |
A question about NEC Nijmegen vs Ajax?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for NEC Nijmegen vs Ajax?
- The Footlab AI model makes Ajax the favourite at 42%, against 23% for a draw and 35% for NEC Nijmegen.
- Where and when is NEC Nijmegen vs Ajax played?
- NEC Nijmegen vs Ajax is played on March 21, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Goffertstadion, in the Eredivisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 70% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.