AZ Alkmaar vs Excelsior: prediction and stats
EredivisieRegular Season - 27Kick-off on March 21, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar
The Footlab AI model makes AZ Alkmaar the favourite at 66%, against 19% for a draw and 15% for Excelsior. The most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,403 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win AZ Alkmaar vs Excelsior?
AZ Alkmaar starts as the favourite with a 214-point Elo edge (2,133 vs 1,919).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for AZ Alkmaar vs Excelsior
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
AZ Alkmaar
4-2-3-1- 9M. Meerdink
- 6P. Koopmeiners
- 11R. Daal
- 14C. Stengs
- 8J. Clasie
- 24A. Oufkir
- 3W. Goes
- 4L. Schouten
- 22E. Dijkstra
- 5M. Chávez
- 28J. De Busser
Excelsior
4-3-3- 19D. Garden
- 30Á. Þorsteinsson
- 7A. Sliti
- 3R. Meissen
- 20L. Hartjes
- 8I. Yegoian
- 14J. Plug
- 4C. Widell
- 2Eric Emanuel da Silva Moreira
- 15S. Janssen
- 1S. van Gassel
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 05:10 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, AZ Alkmaar have 10 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats; Excelsior have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Feyenoord(away) | 0-2 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Telstar(home) | 1-0 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sunderland(away) | 0-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Willem II(home) | 1-1 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Heerenveen(away) | 3-2 | Eredivisie |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Groningen(home) | 1-5 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Ajax(away) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Utrecht(home) | 1-2 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 8, 2026 | NEC Nijmegen(away) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Willem II(away) | 3-0 | Eredivisie |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 AZ Alkmaar wins, 2 draws, 0 Excelsior wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2026 | Excelsior 1-2 AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie |
| Jan 21, 2026 | AZ Alkmaar 1-1 Excelsior | Eredivisie |
| Jul 13, 2024 | AZ Alkmaar 8-0 Excelsior | Friendlies Clubs |
| Mar 10, 2024 | AZ Alkmaar 4-0 Excelsior | Eredivisie |
| Nov 4, 2023 | Excelsior 1-1 AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie |
| Feb 10, 2023 | AZ Alkmaar 5-0 Excelsior | Eredivisie |
Last archived meeting: Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar on Feb 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
AZ Alkmaar score 2.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Excelsior score 2.5 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 70% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar | 2.3 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Excelsior | 2.5 | 1.6 | 3 | 12/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
AZ Alkmaar sit 3rd in Eredivisie (19 points from 8 matches) and Excelsior sit 9th (11 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | AZ Alkmaar | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 8 | 19 |
| 9 | Excelsior | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 14 | 11 |
A question about AZ Alkmaar vs Excelsior?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for AZ Alkmaar vs Excelsior?
- The Footlab AI model makes AZ Alkmaar the favourite at 66%, against 19% for a draw and 15% for Excelsior.
- Where and when is AZ Alkmaar vs Excelsior played?
- AZ Alkmaar vs Excelsior is played on March 21, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at AFAS Stadion, in the Eredivisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 70% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.