Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam: prediction and stats
EredivisieRegular Season - 4Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC)Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Rotterdam
The Footlab model makes Excelsior the favourite at 46%, against 25% for a draw and 30% for Sparta Rotterdam. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam?
A very open match: only 7 Elo points separate Excelsior (1,932) and Sparta Rotterdam (1,925).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Excelsior have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Sparta Rotterdam have 3, 5 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | PSV Eindhoven(home) | 1-2 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Cambuur(away) | 4-0 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | De Graafschap(away) | 5-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Heracles(away) | 5-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | NAC Breda(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Utrecht(home) | 3-3 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Telstar(away) | 3-1 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Feyenoord(home) | 0-1 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | MSV Duisburg(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Asteras Tripolis(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Excelsior win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Sparta Rotterdam win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Sparta Rotterdam 2-3 Excelsior | Eredivisie |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Excelsior 0-1 Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie |
| Feb 17, 2024 | Sparta Rotterdam 4-2 Excelsior | Eredivisie |
| Oct 1, 2023 | Excelsior 2-1 Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie |
| Mar 5, 2023 | Excelsior 1-4 Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie |
| Jan 14, 2023 | Sparta Rotterdam 1-0 Excelsior | Eredivisie |
Last archived meeting: Sparta Rotterdam vs Excelsior on May 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Excelsior score 2.6 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Sparta Rotterdam score 1.4 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Excelsior | 2.6 | 1.4 | 3 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
| Sparta Rotterdam | 1.4 | 1.8 | 4 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Excelsior sit 10th in Eredivisie (3 points from 2 matches) and Sparta Rotterdam sit 7th (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Sparta Rotterdam | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
| 10 | Excelsior | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam?
- The Footlab model makes Excelsior the favourite at 46%, against 25% for a draw and 30% for Sparta Rotterdam.
- Where and when is Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam played?
- Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam is played on August 29, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, in the Eredivisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.