Sparta Rotterdam vs NEC Nijmegen: prediction and stats
EredivisieRegular Season - 15Kick-off on December 6, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel, Rotterdam
The Footlab model makes NEC Nijmegen the favourite at 46%, against 24% for a draw and 30% for Sparta Rotterdam. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sparta Rotterdam vs NEC Nijmegen?
NEC Nijmegen starts as the favourite with a 127-point Elo edge (2,038 vs 1,910).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sparta Rotterdam have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; NEC Nijmegen have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Utrecht(home) | 3-3 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Telstar(away) | 3-1 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Feyenoord(home) | 0-1 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | MSV Duisburg(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Asteras Tripolis(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Bodo/Glimt(away) | 0-3 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Bodo/Glimt(home) | 1-3 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Willem II(away) | 4-1 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Olympiakos Piraeus(home) | 2-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Telstar(home) | 1-2 | Eredivisie |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Sparta Rotterdam win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 NEC Nijmegen win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 17, 2026 | Sparta Rotterdam 1-1 NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie |
| Nov 29, 2025 | NEC Nijmegen 3-1 Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie |
| Apr 6, 2025 | Sparta Rotterdam 2-0 NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie |
| Dec 15, 2024 | NEC Nijmegen 1-1 Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie |
| Feb 24, 2024 | NEC Nijmegen 2-0 Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie |
| Sep 1, 2023 | Sparta Rotterdam 1-1 NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie |
Last archived meeting: Sparta Rotterdam vs NEC Nijmegen on Feb 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sparta Rotterdam score 1.4 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; NEC Nijmegen score 1.5 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam | 1.4 | 1.8 | 4 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| NEC Nijmegen | 1.5 | 1.6 | 2 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sparta Rotterdam sit 7th in Eredivisie (4 points from 3 matches) and NEC Nijmegen sit 11th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Sparta Rotterdam | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sparta Rotterdam vs NEC Nijmegen?
- The Footlab model makes NEC Nijmegen the favourite at 46%, against 24% for a draw and 30% for Sparta Rotterdam.
- Where and when is Sparta Rotterdam vs NEC Nijmegen played?
- Sparta Rotterdam vs NEC Nijmegen is played on December 6, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel, in the Eredivisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.