PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen: prediction and stats
EredivisieRegular Season - 4Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)MAC³PARK Stadion, Zwolle
The Footlab model makes NEC Nijmegen the favourite at 59%, against 21% for a draw and 20% for PEC Zwolle. The most likely score is 1-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 21, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen?
NEC Nijmegen starts as the favourite with a 199-point Elo edge (2,053 vs 1,854).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, PEC Zwolle have 3 wins, 4 draws and 8 defeats; NEC Nijmegen have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Twente(away) | 1-3 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Ajax(home) | 0-2 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Hannover 96(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 26, 2026 | AEK Athens FC(home) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Cercle Brugge(home) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Bodo/Glimt(home) | 1-3 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Willem II(away) | 4-1 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Olympiakos Piraeus(home) | 2-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Telstar(home) | 1-2 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Olympiakos Piraeus(away) | 0-0 | UEFA Champions League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 PEC Zwolle win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 NEC Nijmegen win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | NEC Nijmegen 2-1 PEC Zwolle | Eredivisie |
| Oct 25, 2025 | PEC Zwolle 2-2 NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie |
| Jan 11, 2025 | PEC Zwolle 0-1 NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie |
| Oct 29, 2024 | NEC Nijmegen 4-3 PEC Zwolle | KNVB Beker |
| Aug 24, 2024 | NEC Nijmegen 1-0 PEC Zwolle | Eredivisie |
| Apr 14, 2024 | NEC Nijmegen 2-2 PEC Zwolle | Eredivisie |
Last archived meeting: NEC Nijmegen vs PEC Zwolle on Jan 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
PEC Zwolle score 1.1 and concede 2.3 goals per match over their last 15; NEC Nijmegen score 1.7 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle | 1.1 | 2.3 | 2 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| NEC Nijmegen | 1.7 | 1.4 | 3 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
PEC Zwolle sit 15th in Eredivisie (0 points from 2 matches) and NEC Nijmegen sit 10th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | NEC Nijmegen | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
| 15 | PEC Zwolle | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen?
- The Footlab model makes NEC Nijmegen the favourite at 59%, against 21% for a draw and 20% for PEC Zwolle.
- Where and when is PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen played?
- PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen is played on August 29, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at MAC³PARK Stadion, in the Eredivisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.