Exeter City vs Northampton: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 24Kick-off on January 9, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)St James Park, Exeter, Devon
The Footlab model makes Exeter City the favourite at 50%, against 26% for a draw and 23% for Northampton. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Exeter City vs Northampton?
Exeter City starts as the favourite with a 110-point Elo edge (1,766 vs 1,656).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Exeter City have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Northampton have 2, 3 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Accrington ST(home) | 2-0 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Grimsby(away) | 0-1 | League Two |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Plymouth(away) | 0-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Bristol City(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Torquay(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Crewe(away) | 0-1 | League Two |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Brighton U21(home) | 0-3 | EFL Trophy |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Swindon Town(home) | 0-0 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Leicester(away) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Solihull Moors(away) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Exeter City win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Northampton win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2026 | Exeter City 0-0 Northampton | League One |
| Aug 23, 2025 | Northampton 2-0 Exeter City | League One |
| Mar 1, 2025 | Exeter City 1-1 Northampton | League One |
| Aug 17, 2024 | Northampton 2-1 Exeter City | League One |
| Apr 20, 2024 | Northampton 1-2 Exeter City | League One |
| Sep 30, 2023 | Exeter City 0-2 Northampton | League One |
Last archived meeting: Exeter City vs Northampton on Feb 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Exeter City score 1.1 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Northampton score 0.9 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exeter City | 1.1 | 1.2 | 4 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Northampton | 0.9 | 1.9 | 3 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Exeter City sit 13th in League Two (3 points from 2 matches) and Northampton sit 18th (1 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Exeter City | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 18 | Northampton | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Exeter City vs Northampton?
- The Footlab model makes Exeter City the favourite at 50%, against 26% for a draw and 23% for Northampton.
- Where and when is Exeter City vs Northampton played?
- Exeter City vs Northampton is played on January 9, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at St James Park, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.