Exeter City vs Northampton: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 24Kick-off on January 9, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)St James Park, Exeter, Devon
The Footlab AI model makes Exeter City the favourite at 42%, against 30% for a draw and 28% for Northampton. The most likely score is 1-1. If Exeter City wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,440 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Exeter City vs Northampton?
Exeter City starts as the favourite with a 123-point Elo edge (1,799 vs 1,675).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Exeter City vs Northampton
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Exeter City
4-2-3-1- 10J. Gordon
- 16C. Cummins
- 31J. Doyle-Hayes
- 8T. Perry
- 20George Birch
- 25A. Scully
- 5J. Fitzwater
- 3L. Woodhouse
- 2L. Samuel
- 6J. Taylor
- 1J. Bycroft
Northampton
4-4-2- 19O. Dale
- 9Matthew Warhurst
- 16J. Wormleighton
- 4J. O'Brien-Whitmarsh
- 8L. Evans
- 24C. Lemonheigh-Evans
- 6E. Moore
- 5J. Guthrie
- 22Joshua Alan Powell
- 44J. Donacien
- 1Z. Jeacock
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 12:48 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Exeter City have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Northampton have 3, 6 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Shrewsbury(away) | 1-0 | League Two |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Oxford United(home) | 2-2 | EFL Trophy |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Rotherham(home) | 1-0 | League Two |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bristol Rovers(away) | 0-1 | League Two |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Cheltenham(away) | 2-2 | EFL Trophy |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | York(away) | 1-1 | League Two |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Cambridge United(away) | 1-2 | EFL Trophy |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Rotherham(home) | 0-1 | League Two |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Shrewsbury(away) | 0-2 | League Two |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Newport County(home) | 1-0 | League Two |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Exeter City win, 2 draws, 3 Northampton wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2026 | Exeter City 0-0 Northampton | League One |
| Aug 23, 2025 | Northampton 2-0 Exeter City | League One |
| Mar 1, 2025 | Exeter City 1-1 Northampton | League One |
| Aug 17, 2024 | Northampton 2-1 Exeter City | League One |
| Apr 20, 2024 | Northampton 1-2 Exeter City | League One |
| Sep 30, 2023 | Exeter City 0-2 Northampton | League One |
Last archived meeting: Exeter City vs Northampton on Feb 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Exeter City score 0.9 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Northampton score 0.8 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 39% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exeter City | 0.9 | 0.9 | 6 | 5/15 | 3/15 |
| Northampton | 0.8 | 1.1 | 4 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Exeter City sit 14th in League Two (12 points from 10 matches) and Northampton sit 23rd (7 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Exeter City | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 12 |
| 23 | Northampton | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 7 |
A question about Exeter City vs Northampton?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Exeter City vs Northampton?
- The Footlab AI model makes Exeter City the favourite at 42%, against 30% for a draw and 28% for Northampton.
- Where and when is Exeter City vs Northampton played?
- Exeter City vs Northampton is played on January 9, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at St James Park, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.