Northampton vs Grimsby: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 25Kick-off on January 16, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Sixfields Stadium, Northampton, East Midlands
The Footlab model makes Grimsby the favourite at 48%, against 27% for a draw and 25% for Northampton. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Northampton vs Grimsby?
Grimsby starts as the favourite with a 178-point Elo edge (1,834 vs 1,656).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Northampton have 2 wins, 3 draws and 10 defeats; Grimsby have 7, 6 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Crewe(away) | 0-1 | League Two |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Brighton U21(home) | 0-3 | EFL Trophy |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Swindon Town(home) | 0-0 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Leicester(away) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Solihull Moors(away) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Walsall(away) | 0-0 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Exeter City(home) | 1-0 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Blackpool(home) | 1-3 | League Cup |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Grimsby Borough(home) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Wigan(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Northampton win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Grimsby win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 18, 2023 | Northampton 1-2 Grimsby | League Two |
| Aug 6, 2022 | Grimsby 1-1 Northampton | League Two |
| Feb 29, 2020 | Grimsby 0-3 Northampton | League Two |
| Nov 23, 2019 | Northampton 2-0 Grimsby | League Two |
| Mar 16, 2019 | Grimsby 0-0 Northampton | League Two |
| Nov 24, 2018 | Northampton 2-2 Grimsby | League Two |
Last archived meeting: Northampton vs Grimsby on Feb 18, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Northampton score 0.9 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Grimsby score 1.7 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northampton | 0.9 | 1.9 | 3 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Grimsby | 1.7 | 0.9 | 7 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Northampton sit 18th in League Two (1 points from 2 matches) and Grimsby sit 8th (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Grimsby | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 18 | Northampton | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Northampton vs Grimsby?
- The Footlab model makes Grimsby the favourite at 48%, against 27% for a draw and 25% for Northampton.
- Where and when is Northampton vs Grimsby played?
- Northampton vs Grimsby is played on January 16, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Sixfields Stadium, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.