Exeter City vs Oxford United: prediction and stats
EFL TrophyGroup South - 1Kick-off on September 2, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)St James Park, Exeter, Devon
The Footlab model makes Exeter City the favourite at 42%, against 24% for a draw and 34% for Oxford United. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Exeter City vs Oxford United?
A very open match: only 54 Elo points separate Exeter City (1,766) and Oxford United (1,821).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Exeter City have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Oxford United have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Accrington ST(home) | 2-0 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Grimsby(away) | 0-1 | League Two |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Plymouth(away) | 0-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Bristol City(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Torquay(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Stevenage(away) | 2-1 | League One |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Milton Keynes Dons(home) | 2-2 | League One |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Leyton Orient(away) | 0-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Ipswich(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Crawley Town(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Exeter City win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Oxford United win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2025 | Exeter City 3-1 Oxford United | FA Cup |
| Jul 24, 2024 | Oxford United 0-1 Exeter City | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 27, 2024 | Exeter City 1-2 Oxford United | League One |
| Sep 23, 2023 | Oxford United 3-0 Exeter City | League One |
| Jan 1, 2023 | Oxford United 0-1 Exeter City | League One |
| Nov 26, 2022 | Oxford United 4-1 Exeter City | FA Cup |
Last archived meeting: Exeter City vs Oxford United on Jan 11, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Exeter City score 1.1 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Oxford United score 1.5 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exeter City | 1.1 | 1.2 | 4 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Oxford United | 1.5 | 1.2 | 2 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Exeter City | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Exeter City vs Oxford United?
- The Footlab model makes Exeter City the favourite at 42%, against 24% for a draw and 34% for Oxford United.
- Where and when is Exeter City vs Oxford United played?
- Exeter City vs Oxford United is played on September 2, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at St James Park, in the EFL Trophy.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.