Cheltenham vs Exeter City: prediction and stats
EFL TrophyGroup South - 1Kick-off on September 2, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Completely-Suzuki Stadium, Cheltenham, Gloucestershire
The Footlab model makes Cheltenham the favourite at 38%, against 24% for a draw and 38% for Exeter City. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cheltenham vs Exeter City?
A very open match: only 96 Elo points separate Cheltenham (1,670) and Exeter City (1,766).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cheltenham have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; Exeter City have 3, 5 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Swindon Town(away) | 1-2 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Rotherham(home) | 2-1 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Charlton(home) | 1-3 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Milton Keynes Dons(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Evesham United(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Accrington ST(home) | 2-0 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Grimsby(away) | 0-1 | League Two |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Plymouth(away) | 0-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Bristol City(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Torquay(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Cheltenham win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Exeter City win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 13, 2025 | Cheltenham 2-0 Exeter City | League Cup |
| Apr 1, 2024 | Cheltenham 1-2 Exeter City | League One |
| Sep 16, 2023 | Exeter City 1-0 Cheltenham | League One |
| Mar 18, 2023 | Cheltenham 3-1 Exeter City | League One |
| Aug 20, 2022 | Exeter City 0-1 Cheltenham | League One |
| Aug 9, 2022 | Cheltenham 0-7 Exeter City | League Cup |
Last archived meeting: Cheltenham vs Exeter City on Aug 13, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Cheltenham score 1.3 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Exeter City score 1.1 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cheltenham | 1.3 | 1.9 | 3 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Exeter City | 1.1 | 1.2 | 4 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Cheltenham sit 3rd in EFL Trophy (2 points from 3 matches) and Exeter City sit 2nd (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Exeter City | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 6 |
| 3 | Cheltenham | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cheltenham vs Exeter City?
- The Footlab model makes Cheltenham the favourite at 38%, against 24% for a draw and 38% for Exeter City.
- Where and when is Cheltenham vs Exeter City played?
- Cheltenham vs Exeter City is played on September 2, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Completely-Suzuki Stadium, in the EFL Trophy.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.