Baltika vs Fakel: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 27Kick-off on May 8, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Rostec Arena, Kaliningrad
The Footlab AI model makes Baltika the favourite at 56%, against 25% for a draw and 19% for Fakel. The most likely score is 1-1. If Baltika wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,752 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 18, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Baltika vs Fakel?
Baltika starts as the favourite with a 114-point Elo edge (1,972 vs 1,858).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Baltika vs Fakel
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Baltika
5-4-1- 91B. Gil
- 73M. Petrov
- 8A. Mendel
- 10I. Petrov
- 7K. Shiltsov
- 2S. Varatynov
- 22M. Beveev
- 4N. Gassama
- 24L. Mouyokolo
- 21E. Anderson
- 1E. Latyshonok
Fakel
3-4-3- 11A. Sutormin
- 90A. Koksharov
- 19B. Pusi
- 55D. Todorović
- 23V. Yakimov
- 8A. Bagamaev
- 10I. Alshin
- 5A. Gabaraev
- 40Clayton
- 53M. Bardachev
- 96I. Obukhov
Computed on October 18, 2026 at 10:49 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Baltika have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Fakel have 3, 4 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | Krylia Sovetov(away) | 2-0 | Cup |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Akhmat(away) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Zenit(home) | 2-3 | Premier League |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Fakel(away) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Lokomotiv(home) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Krylia Sovetov(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Oct 13, 2026 | FC Krasnodar(away) | 2-0 | Cup |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Lokomotiv(home) | 0-5 | Premier League |
| Oct 3, 2026 | FC Vitebsk(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Spartak Moscow(away) | 0-1 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Baltika wins, 2 draws, 2 Fakel wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 12, 2026 | Fakel 2-2 Baltika | Premier League |
| Feb 12, 2026 | Baltika 1-0 Fakel | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jan 31, 2024 | Baltika 1-2 Fakel | Friendlies Clubs |
| Dec 2, 2023 | Fakel 0-0 Baltika | Premier League |
| Aug 6, 2023 | Baltika 2-1 Fakel | Premier League |
| May 21, 2022 | Baltika 0-1 Fakel | First League |
How many goals should we expect?
Baltika score 1.2 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Fakel score 0.8 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltika | 1.2 | 1.0 | 5 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Fakel | 0.8 | 1.4 | 4 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Baltika sit 7th in Premier League (12 points from 10 matches) and Fakel sit 15th (6 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Baltika | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 12 | 12 |
| 15 | Fakel | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 6 |
A question about Baltika vs Fakel?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Baltika vs Fakel?
- The Footlab AI model makes Baltika the favourite at 56%, against 25% for a draw and 19% for Fakel.
- Where and when is Baltika vs Fakel played?
- Baltika vs Fakel is played on May 8, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Rostec Arena, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.