Farnborough vs Dover: prediction and stats
National League - SouthNational League South - 9Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Saunders Transport Community Stadium, Farnborough, Hampshire
The Footlab model makes Farnborough the favourite at 49%, against 23% for a draw and 28% for Dover. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Farnborough vs Dover?
A very open match: only 50 Elo points separate Farnborough (1,772) and Dover (1,722).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Farnborough have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Dover have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Maidenhead(away) | 1-1 | National League - South |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Chesham United(home) | 1-0 | National League - South |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Hemel Hempstead Town(home) | 0-2 | National League - South |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Maidstone Utd(away) | 2-1 | National League - South |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Bath City(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Weston-super-Mare(away) | 3-2 | National League - South |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Tonbridge Angels(home) | 0-1 | National League - South |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Slough Town(home) | 5-3 | National League - South |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Billericay Town(away) | 0-2 | National League - South |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Carshalton Athletic(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Farnborough win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Dover win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2026 | Dover 1-3 Farnborough | National League - South |
| Sep 13, 2025 | Farnborough 4-1 Dover | FA Cup |
| Sep 6, 2025 | Farnborough 1-2 Dover | National League - South |
| Mar 23, 2024 | Dover 1-3 Farnborough | National League - South |
| Oct 28, 2023 | Farnborough 4-0 Dover | National League - South |
| Apr 22, 2023 | Farnborough 3-0 Dover | National League - South |
How many goals should we expect?
Farnborough score 1.8 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Dover score 1.2 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Farnborough | 1.8 | 1.4 | 4 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Dover | 1.2 | 1.8 | 2 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Farnborough sit 7th in National League - South (7 points from 4 matches) and Dover sit 10th (6 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Farnborough | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 7 |
| 10 | Dover | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Farnborough vs Dover?
- The Footlab model makes Farnborough the favourite at 49%, against 23% for a draw and 28% for Dover.
- Where and when is Farnborough vs Dover played?
- Farnborough vs Dover is played on September 12, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Saunders Transport Community Stadium, in the National League - South.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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