Match

Fátima vs Fazendense: prediction and stats

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group CGroup C - 7Kick-off on November 1, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Papa Francisco, Fátima

FátimaFazendense

The Footlab model makes Fátima the favourite at 44%, against 29% for a draw and 27% for Fazendense. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Fátima vs Fazendense?

A very open match: only 55 Elo points separate Fátima (1,785) and Fazendense (1,730).

Fátima win44 %
Draw29 %
Fazendense win27 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Fátima have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; Fazendense have 0, 1 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Fátima
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 23, 2026Atlético Malveira(home)5-0Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C
Aug 16, 2026O Elvas(away)1-1Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C
Apr 18, 2026Benfica Castelo Branco(home)4-1Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C
Apr 12, 2026Eléctrico(away)3-0Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C
Apr 4, 2026Vitória de Sernache(home)2-2Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C
Fazendense
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 23, 2026AD Nogueirense(home)3-3Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C
Sep 21, 2025Mirandela(home)1-2Taça de Portugal
Sep 11, 2022Sintrense(away)0-1Taça de Portugal
Oct 7, 20201º Dezembro(home)0-2Taça de Portugal
Sep 4, 2016Caldas(home)0-3Taça de Portugal

How many goals should we expect?

Fátima score 1.5 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Fazendense score 0.8 and concede 2.2. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Fátima1.51.057/156/15
Fazendense0.82.202/53/5

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Fátima sit 3rd in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C (4 points from 2 matches) and Fazendense sit 10th (1 points from 1 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
3Fátima2110614
10Fazendense1010331

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Fátima vs Fazendense?
The Footlab model makes Fátima the favourite at 44%, against 29% for a draw and 27% for Fazendense.
Where and when is Fátima vs Fazendense played?
Fátima vs Fazendense is played on November 1, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Papa Francisco, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Other matches in the same round

Next match: Fátima and Fazendense

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