Nazarenos vs Sertanense: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group CGroup C - 7Kick-off on November 1, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab AI model makes Nazarenos the favourite at 38%, against 31% for a draw and 31% for Sertanense. The most likely score is 1-1. If Nazarenos wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 2,904 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 21, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Nazarenos vs Sertanense?
A very open match: only 35 Elo points separate Nazarenos (1,788) and Sertanense (1,753).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Nazarenos vs Sertanense
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Nazarenos
Not enough data to predict the Nazarenos lineup.
Sertanense
4-3-3- MM. Emmanuel
- DDiogo Teixeira
- DDavi Barbosa
- 5Tiago Rodrigues
- MMauro Santos
- DDavid Morais
- GGabriel Morais Piçarra
- DDaniel Xavier
- EElvis Landim
- JJoão André Farinha Tomás
- DDaniel Leitão
Computed on October 21, 2026 at 04:34 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 8 matches in all competitions, Nazarenos have 2 wins, 0 draws and 6 defeats; Sertanense have 2, 6 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Fátima(away) | 3-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Os Marialvas(home) | 0-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Atlético Malveira(away) | 0-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Vitória de Sernache(home) | 0-3 | Taça de Portugal |
| Aug 23, 2026 | O Elvas(home) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Os Marialvas(away) | 0-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 27, 2026 | O Elvas(away) | 0-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Atlético Malveira(home) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Alcains(away) | 0-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Mortágua(home) | 1-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
How many goals should we expect?
Nazarenos score 0.6 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 8; Sertanense score 0.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 36% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nazarenos | 0.6 | 1.9 | 1 | 2/8 | 5/8 |
| Sertanense | 0.7 | 1.1 | 3 | 7/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 8 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Nazarenos sit 14th in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C (0 points from 4 matches) and Sertanense sit 12th (2 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Sertanense | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 2 |
| 14 | Nazarenos | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
A question about Nazarenos vs Sertanense?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Nazarenos vs Sertanense?
- The Footlab AI model makes Nazarenos the favourite at 38%, against 31% for a draw and 31% for Sertanense.
- Where and when is Nazarenos vs Sertanense played?
- Nazarenos vs Sertanense is played on November 1, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC), in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 36% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.