Fazendense vs Estrela: prediction and stats
Taça de PortugalRound of 64Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC)
The Footlab AI model makes Estrela the favourite at 53%, against 23% for a draw and 24% for Fazendense. The most likely score is 1-1. If Estrela wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Fazendense vs Estrela?
Estrela starts as the favourite with a 248-point Elo edge (2,045 vs 1,796).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Fazendense vs Estrela
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Fazendense
Not enough data to predict the Fazendense lineup.
Estrela
4-2-3-1- 37L. Antonetti
- 10I. Stoica
- 99A. Marcus
- 14L. Zvonarek
- 39Eddy Doue
- 78Santiago Serra
- 55Rafa Soares
- 21M. Scholze
- 5S. Leković
- 4Bernardo Schappo
- 24Léo Linck
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 10:18 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 11 matches in all competitions, Fazendense have 2 wins, 1 draw and 8 defeats; Estrela have 6, 6 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Atlético Malveira(away) | 1-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 27, 2026 | FC Alverca II(away) | 0-5 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Ginásio Figueirense(home) | 6-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 13, 2026 | O Elvas(home) | 1-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Mortágua(away) | 1-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Arouca(away) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Academico Viseu(home) | 0-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Rio Ave(away) | 3-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 10, 2026 | SC Braga(home) | 2-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Famalicao(home) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Fazendense score 1.3 and concede 2.2 goals per match over their last 11; Estrela score 1.7 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fazendense | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1 | 6/11 | 8/11 |
| Estrela | 1.7 | 1.4 | 3 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 11 matches in all competitions.
A question about Fazendense vs Estrela?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Fazendense vs Estrela?
- The Footlab AI model makes Estrela the favourite at 53%, against 23% for a draw and 24% for Fazendense.
- Where and when is Fazendense vs Estrela played?
- Fazendense vs Estrela is played on October 17, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC), in the Taça de Portugal.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.