FC Aarau vs Étoile Carouge: prediction and stats
Challenge LeagueRegular Season - 11Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Brügglifeld, Aarau
The Footlab AI model makes FC Aarau the favourite at 65%, against 20% for a draw and 15% for Étoile Carouge. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 2,904 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 21, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FC Aarau vs Étoile Carouge?
FC Aarau starts as the favourite with a 113-point Elo edge (1,714 vs 1,602).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for FC Aarau vs Étoile Carouge
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
FC Aarau
4-3-3- 18D. Afriyie
- 7M. Guindo
- 11H. Koide
- 6I. Aliu
- 20K. Ndau
- 80A. Beka Beka
- 2M. Thaler
- 29M. Dickenmann
- 27L. Obexer
- 15S. Müller
- 30A. Hirzel
Étoile Carouge
4-1-4-1- 76Itaitinga
- 8R. Alves
- 14S. Camara
- 6M. El Jaouhari
- 10B. Caslei
- 77T. Escorza
- 4I. Strohbach
- 24M. Dubosson
- 78N. Boulkous
- 3F. Hoxha
- 23Lionel Huwiler
Computed on October 21, 2026 at 02:04 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FC Aarau have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Étoile Carouge have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | FC Zurich(home) | 2-0 | Schweizer Cup |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Stade Nyonnais(away) | 1-2 | Challenge League |
| Oct 2, 2026 | BSC Young Boys(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 18, 2026 | FC Winterthur(away) | 1-2 | Challenge League |
| Sep 12, 2026 | SC Kriens(home) | 2-2 | Challenge League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy(away) | 0-3 | Schweizer Cup |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Yverdon Sport(home) | 0-2 | Challenge League |
| Sep 18, 2026 | SC Kriens(away) | 1-4 | Challenge League |
| Sep 11, 2026 | FC Winterthur(home) | 0-1 | Challenge League |
| Sep 4, 2026 | FC WIL 1900(home) | 1-1 | Challenge League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 FC Aarau wins, 0 draws, 2 Étoile Carouge wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 24, 2026 | Étoile Carouge 3-0 FC Aarau | Challenge League |
| Apr 7, 2026 | FC Aarau 1-3 Étoile Carouge | Challenge League |
| Mar 6, 2026 | Étoile Carouge 0-3 FC Aarau | Challenge League |
| Dec 12, 2025 | FC Aarau 2-1 Étoile Carouge | Challenge League |
| Sep 26, 2025 | Étoile Carouge 1-3 FC Aarau | Challenge League |
| May 16, 2025 | Étoile Carouge 1-3 FC Aarau | Challenge League |
Last archived meeting: Étoile Carouge vs FC Aarau on Jul 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
FC Aarau score 1.5 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Étoile Carouge score 0.8 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Aarau | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1 | 12/15 | 12/15 |
| Étoile Carouge | 0.8 | 2.0 | 3 | 5/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
FC Aarau sit 6th in Challenge League (12 points from 10 matches) and Étoile Carouge sit 9th (9 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | FC Aarau | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 18 | 12 |
| 9 | Étoile Carouge | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 14 | 9 |
A question about FC Aarau vs Étoile Carouge?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FC Aarau vs Étoile Carouge?
- The Footlab AI model makes FC Aarau the favourite at 65%, against 20% for a draw and 15% for Étoile Carouge.
- Where and when is FC Aarau vs Étoile Carouge played?
- FC Aarau vs Étoile Carouge is played on October 24, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Brügglifeld, in the Challenge League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.