FC Aarau vs Étoile Carouge: prediction and stats
Challenge LeagueRegular Season - 11Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Brügglifeld, Aarau
The Footlab model makes FC Aarau the favourite at 45%, against 24% for a draw and 31% for Étoile Carouge. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FC Aarau vs Étoile Carouge?
A very open match: only 72 Elo points separate FC Aarau (1,872) and Étoile Carouge (1,800).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FC Aarau have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Étoile Carouge have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Yverdon Sport(away) | 1-2 | Challenge League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Biel-Bienne(away) | 3-3 | Schweizer Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Stade Nyonnais(home) | 2-1 | Challenge League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy(home) | 1-1 | Challenge League |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Étoile Carouge(away) | 0-3 | Challenge League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Stade Nyonnais(away) | 0-0 | Challenge League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Collex-Bossy(away) | 2-0 | Schweizer Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Neuchatel Xamax FC(home) | 0-1 | Challenge League |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Yverdon Sport(away) | 1-1 | Challenge League |
| Jul 24, 2026 | FC Aarau(home) | 3-0 | Challenge League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 FC Aarau win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Étoile Carouge win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 24, 2026 | Étoile Carouge 3-0 FC Aarau | Challenge League |
| Apr 7, 2026 | FC Aarau 1-3 Étoile Carouge | Challenge League |
| Mar 6, 2026 | Étoile Carouge 0-3 FC Aarau | Challenge League |
| Dec 12, 2025 | FC Aarau 2-1 Étoile Carouge | Challenge League |
| Sep 26, 2025 | Étoile Carouge 1-3 FC Aarau | Challenge League |
| May 16, 2025 | Étoile Carouge 1-3 FC Aarau | Challenge League |
Last archived meeting: Étoile Carouge vs FC Aarau on Jul 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
FC Aarau score 1.7 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Étoile Carouge score 1.3 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Aarau | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1 | 12/15 | 12/15 |
| Étoile Carouge | 1.3 | 1.9 | 4 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
FC Aarau sit 7th in Challenge League (4 points from 4 matches) and Étoile Carouge sit 6th (5 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Étoile Carouge | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 5 |
| 7 | FC Aarau | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FC Aarau vs Étoile Carouge?
- The Footlab model makes FC Aarau the favourite at 45%, against 24% for a draw and 31% for Étoile Carouge.
- Where and when is FC Aarau vs Étoile Carouge played?
- FC Aarau vs Étoile Carouge is played on October 24, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Brügglifeld, in the Challenge League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.