FC Alverca II vs Benfica Castelo Branco: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group CGroup C - 3Kick-off on September 6, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes FC Alverca II the favourite at 45%, against 29% for a draw and 26% for Benfica Castelo Branco. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FC Alverca II vs Benfica Castelo Branco?
A very open match: only 39 Elo points separate FC Alverca II (1,859) and Benfica Castelo Branco (1,820).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FC Alverca II have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Benfica Castelo Branco have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | UD da Serra(away) | 1-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Comércio Indústria(home) | 5-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Apr 12, 2026 | FC Serpa(away) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Alcochetense(home) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Mar 29, 2026 | Portimonense B(home) | 4-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Naval 1893(home) | 1-4 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Oliveira Hospital(away) | 3-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Fátima(away) | 1-4 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Samora Correir(home) | 1-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Peniche(away) | 2-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 FC Alverca II win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Benfica Castelo Branco win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 12, 2025 | FC Alverca II 1-2 Benfica Castelo Branco | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Aug 18, 2024 | Benfica Castelo Branco 1-2 FC Alverca II | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Jan 28, 2024 | FC Alverca II 1-0 Benfica Castelo Branco | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 17, 2023 | Benfica Castelo Branco 0-0 FC Alverca II | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
Last archived meeting: FC Alverca II vs Benfica Castelo Branco on Jan 12, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
FC Alverca II score 1.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Benfica Castelo Branco score 1.6 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Alverca II | 1.9 | 1.1 | 4 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
| Benfica Castelo Branco | 1.6 | 1.4 | 4 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
FC Alverca II sit 12th in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C (0 points from 1 matches) and Benfica Castelo Branco sit 7th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Benfica Castelo Branco | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 3 |
| 12 | FC Alverca II | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FC Alverca II vs Benfica Castelo Branco?
- The Footlab model makes FC Alverca II the favourite at 45%, against 29% for a draw and 26% for Benfica Castelo Branco.
- Where and when is FC Alverca II vs Benfica Castelo Branco played?
- FC Alverca II vs Benfica Castelo Branco is played on September 6, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC), in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.