AD Nogueirense vs UD da Serra: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group CGroup C - 3Kick-off on September 6, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Santo António, Nogueira do Cravo
The Footlab model makes AD Nogueirense the favourite at 39%, against 30% for a draw and 31% for UD da Serra. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win AD Nogueirense vs UD da Serra?
A very open match: only 70 Elo points separate AD Nogueirense (1,755) and UD da Serra (1,826).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 5 matches in all competitions, AD Nogueirense have 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats; UD da Serra have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Fazendense(away) | 3-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Sertanense(home) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 9, 2018 | Sanjoanense(away) | 0-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 3, 2017 | Gafanha(home) | 0-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 4, 2016 | Mortágua(away) | 0-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | FC Alverca II(home) | 2-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Naval 1893(away) | 2-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Samora Correir(away) | 2-4 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Peniche(home) | 3-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Oliveira Hospital(away) | 0-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
How many goals should we expect?
AD Nogueirense score 0.8 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 5; UD da Serra score 1.4 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AD Nogueirense | 0.8 | 1.6 | 0 | 2/5 | 1/5 |
| UD da Serra | 1.4 | 0.9 | 7 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 5 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
AD Nogueirense sit 9th in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C (2 points from 2 matches) and UD da Serra sit 2nd (6 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | UD da Serra | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| 9 | AD Nogueirense | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for AD Nogueirense vs UD da Serra?
- The Footlab model makes AD Nogueirense the favourite at 39%, against 30% for a draw and 31% for UD da Serra.
- Where and when is AD Nogueirense vs UD da Serra played?
- AD Nogueirense vs UD da Serra is played on September 6, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Santo António, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.