FC Differdange 03 vs Progres Niederkorn: prediction and stats
National DivisionRegular Season - 13Kick-off on November 22, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stade Parc des Sports, Differdange
The Footlab model makes FC Differdange 03 the favourite at 66%, against 21% for a draw and 13% for Progres Niederkorn. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FC Differdange 03 vs Progres Niederkorn?
FC Differdange 03 starts as the favourite with a 206-point Elo edge (1,762 vs 1,557).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FC Differdange 03 have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Progres Niederkorn have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Racing FC Union Luxembourg(home) | 3-0 | National Division |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Wiltz(away) | 2-1 | National Division |
| Aug 9, 2026 | US Rumelange(home) | 2-0 | National Division |
| Aug 2, 2026 | US Mondorf-les-bains(away) | 2-3 | National Division |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Ilves(away) | 1-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | UNA Strassen(home) | 0-1 | National Division |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Atert Bissen(away) | 4-0 | National Division |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Résidence Walferdange(away) | 1-0 | National Division |
| Aug 1, 2026 | AS Jeunesse Esch(home) | 2-1 | National Division |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Excelsior Virton(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 FC Differdange 03 win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Progres Niederkorn win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 8, 2026 | Progres Niederkorn 2-3 FC Differdange 03 | National Division |
| Nov 30, 2025 | FC Differdange 03 1-1 Progres Niederkorn | National Division |
| Mar 1, 2025 | Progres Niederkorn 0-2 FC Differdange 03 | National Division |
| Sep 1, 2024 | FC Differdange 03 1-0 Progres Niederkorn | National Division |
| May 13, 2024 | Progres Niederkorn 0-1 FC Differdange 03 | National Division |
| Apr 24, 2024 | Progres Niederkorn 2-0 FC Differdange 03 | Cup |
Last archived meeting: Progres Niederkorn vs FC Differdange 03 on May 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
FC Differdange 03 score 1.7 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Progres Niederkorn score 1.5 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Differdange 03 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 7 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Progres Niederkorn | 1.5 | 1.8 | 3 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
FC Differdange 03 sit 5th in National Division (6 points from 3 matches) and Progres Niederkorn sit 3rd (9 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Progres Niederkorn | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 9 |
| 3 | FC Differdange 03 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 9 |
| 4 | Progres Niederkorn | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 9 |
| 5 | FC Differdange 03 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FC Differdange 03 vs Progres Niederkorn?
- The Footlab model makes FC Differdange 03 the favourite at 66%, against 21% for a draw and 13% for Progres Niederkorn.
- Where and when is FC Differdange 03 vs Progres Niederkorn played?
- FC Differdange 03 vs Progres Niederkorn is played on November 22, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Parc des Sports, in the National Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Nov 22, 2026F91 DudelangevsRésidence Walferdange
- Nov 22, 2026Racing FC Union LuxembourgvsWiltz
- Nov 22, 2026UN Kaerjeng 97vsUS Mondorf-les-bains
- Nov 22, 2026Victoria RosportvsAS Jeunesse Esch
- Nov 22, 2026US HostertvsUS Rumelange
- Nov 22, 2026Etzella EttelbruckvsUNA Strassen
- Nov 22, 2026Swift HesperangevsAtert Bissen