FC Dnepr Mogilev vs Bate Borisov: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 25Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadyen Spartak, Mogilev
The Footlab model makes FC Dnepr Mogilev the favourite at 37%, against 32% for a draw and 31% for Bate Borisov. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FC Dnepr Mogilev vs Bate Borisov?
Bate Borisov starts as the favourite with a 135-point Elo edge (1,653 vs 1,518).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FC Dnepr Mogilev have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Bate Borisov have 2, 9 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Belshina(home) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Slavia Mozyr(away) | 0-3 | Premier League |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Naftan(home) | 3-3 | Premier League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Torpedo Zhodino(away) | 2-1 | Coppa |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Osipovichy(away) | 3-1 | Coppa |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | ML Vitebsk(away) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | FC Vitebsk(home) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Baranovichi(away) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Jul 30, 2026 | FC Sion(away) | 0-4 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 23, 2026 | FC Sion(home) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 FC Dnepr Mogilev win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Bate Borisov win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | Bate Borisov 1-1 FC Dnepr Mogilev | Premier League |
| Sep 1, 2024 | FC Dnepr Mogilev 1-1 Bate Borisov | Premier League |
| Jun 8, 2024 | Bate Borisov 2-4 FC Dnepr Mogilev | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 19, 2024 | Bate Borisov 1-1 FC Dnepr Mogilev | Premier League |
| Feb 25, 2023 | Bate Borisov 1-3 FC Dnepr Mogilev | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 21, 2022 | Bate Borisov 2-1 FC Dnepr Mogilev | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Bate Borisov vs FC Dnepr Mogilev on May 31, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
FC Dnepr Mogilev score 1.1 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Bate Borisov score 0.9 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 34% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Dnepr Mogilev | 1.1 | 1.7 | 2 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Bate Borisov | 0.9 | 1.3 | 4 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
FC Dnepr Mogilev sit 15th in Premier League (13 points from 18 matches) and Bate Borisov sit 14th (14 points from 17 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Bate Borisov | 17 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 14 |
| 15 | FC Dnepr Mogilev | 18 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 16 | 29 | 13 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FC Dnepr Mogilev vs Bate Borisov?
- The Footlab model makes FC Dnepr Mogilev the favourite at 37%, against 32% for a draw and 31% for Bate Borisov.
- Where and when is FC Dnepr Mogilev vs Bate Borisov played?
- FC Dnepr Mogilev vs Bate Borisov is played on October 17, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadyen Spartak, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 34% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.