ML Vitebsk vs Neman: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 25Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadyen DYuSSh-1, Rohachev
The Footlab model makes ML Vitebsk the favourite at 60%, against 24% for a draw and 16% for Neman. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win ML Vitebsk vs Neman?
ML Vitebsk starts as the favourite with a 117-point Elo edge (1,840 vs 1,723).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, ML Vitebsk have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Neman have 6, 1 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Bate Borisov(home) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Baranovichi(home) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Borac Banja Luka(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Borac Banja Luka(away) | 0-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Sutjeska(away) | 2-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Naftan(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | FC Minsk(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | FC Vitebsk(away) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Arsenal(away) | 3-2 | Coppa |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Shakhter Soligorsk(away) | 2-1 | Coppa |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 2 ML Vitebsk win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Neman win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 30, 2026 | Neman 1-2 ML Vitebsk | Premier League |
| Feb 28, 2026 | ML Vitebsk 2-2 Neman | Super Cup |
| Sep 20, 2025 | Neman 3-1 ML Vitebsk | Premier League |
| May 3, 2025 | ML Vitebsk 1-0 Neman | Premier League |
| Feb 9, 2024 | Neman 0-0 ML Vitebsk | Friendlies Clubs |
How many goals should we expect?
ML Vitebsk score 1.7 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Neman score 1.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ML Vitebsk | 1.7 | 1.2 | 5 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Neman | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
ML Vitebsk sit 2nd in Premier League (35 points from 16 matches) and Neman sit 8th (27 points from 18 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | ML Vitebsk | 16 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 32 | 13 | 35 |
| 8 | Neman | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 20 | 17 | 27 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for ML Vitebsk vs Neman?
- The Footlab model makes ML Vitebsk the favourite at 60%, against 24% for a draw and 16% for Neman.
- Where and when is ML Vitebsk vs Neman played?
- ML Vitebsk vs Neman is played on October 17, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadyen DYuSSh-1, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.