FC Orenburg vs Spartak Moscow: prediction and stats
CupGroup Stage - 6Kick-off on November 24, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Gazovik, Rostoshi
The Footlab model makes Spartak Moscow the favourite at 50%, against 26% for a draw and 24% for FC Orenburg. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FC Orenburg vs Spartak Moscow?
Spartak Moscow starts as the favourite with a 255-point Elo edge (2,099 vs 1,844).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FC Orenburg have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Spartak Moscow have 8, 5 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Fakel(away) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Rodina Moskva(away) | 4-1 | Cup |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Lokomotiv(home) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Rubin(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Spartak Moscow(away) | 1-5 | Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Zenit(home) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Rubin(away) | 1-1 | Cup |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Baltika(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | FC Krasnodar(home) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 5, 2026 | FC Orenburg(home) | 5-1 | Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 FC Orenburg win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Spartak Moscow win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2026 | Spartak Moscow 5-1 FC Orenburg | Cup |
| Mar 22, 2026 | FC Orenburg 0-2 Spartak Moscow | Premier League |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Spartak Moscow 1-0 FC Orenburg | Premier League |
| Mar 2, 2025 | Spartak Moscow 2-0 FC Orenburg | Premier League |
| Jul 21, 2024 | FC Orenburg 2-0 Spartak Moscow | Premier League |
| May 25, 2024 | FC Orenburg 0-0 Spartak Moscow | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Spartak Moscow vs FC Orenburg on Aug 5, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
FC Orenburg score 1.1 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Spartak Moscow score 1.6 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Orenburg | 1.1 | 1.5 | 3 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Spartak Moscow | 1.6 | 0.9 | 5 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FC Orenburg vs Spartak Moscow?
- The Footlab model makes Spartak Moscow the favourite at 50%, against 26% for a draw and 24% for FC Orenburg.
- Where and when is FC Orenburg vs Spartak Moscow played?
- FC Orenburg vs Spartak Moscow is played on November 24, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Gazovik, in the Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.