Rubin vs Rodina Moskva: prediction and stats
CupGroup Stage - 6Kick-off on November 24, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Ak Bars Arena, Kazan'
The Footlab model makes Rubin the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 33% for Rodina Moskva. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Rubin vs Rodina Moskva?
A very open match: only 23 Elo points separate Rubin (1,929) and Rodina Moskva (1,906).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Rubin have 4 wins, 7 draws and 4 defeats; Rodina Moskva have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Baltika(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Spartak Moscow(home) | 1-1 | Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | FC Rostov(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | FC Orenburg(home) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Rodina Moskva(away) | 0-5 | Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Dynamo(away) | 1-3 | Premier League |
| Aug 18, 2026 | FC Orenburg(home) | 1-4 | Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Akron(home) | 3-3 | Premier League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Zenit(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Rubin(home) | 5-0 | Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Rubin win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Rodina Moskva win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2026 | Rodina Moskva 5-0 Rubin | Cup |
| Feb 22, 2024 | Rubin 1-4 Rodina Moskva | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 3, 2023 | Rodina Moskva 0-0 Rubin | First League |
| Jul 17, 2022 | Rubin 2-0 Rodina Moskva | First League |
Last archived meeting: Rodina Moskva vs Rubin on Aug 4, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Rubin score 1.2 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Rodina Moskva score 1.6 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rubin | 1.2 | 1.4 | 3 | 11/15 | 7/15 |
| Rodina Moskva | 1.6 | 1.8 | 5 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Rubin vs Rodina Moskva?
- The Footlab model makes Rubin the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 33% for Rodina Moskva.
- Where and when is Rubin vs Rodina Moskva played?
- Rubin vs Rodina Moskva is played on November 24, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Ak Bars Arena, in the Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.