FC Porto vs Estoril: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 10Kick-off on November 1, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Do Dragão, Porto
The Footlab AI model makes FC Porto the favourite at 77%, against 16% for a draw and 7% for Estoril. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.9% of the 1,758 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FC Porto vs Estoril?
FC Porto is a heavy favourite: 2,461 Elo points against 2,061, a 400-point gap.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for FC Porto vs Estoril
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
FC Porto
4-3-3- 11Pepê Aquino
- 7William
- 19André Silva
- 10Gabri Veiga
- 13P. Rosario
- 8Victor Mow Froholdt
- 20Alberto Baio
- 4J. Kiwior
- 5J. Bednarek
- 74Francisco Moura
- 99Diogo Costa
Estoril
4-2-3-1- 14Y. Begraoui
- 12João Carvalho
- 10J. Holsgrove
- 44M. Robin
- 11N. Omerović
- 98Fabrício Garcia
- 2Ricard Sánchez
- 15Isma Sierra
- 4Ferro
- 21R. Jurišić
- 1Joel Robles
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 02:34 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FC Porto have 13 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats; Estoril have 0, 6 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruna(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Benfica(home) | 3-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Casa Pia(away) | 4-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Manchester City(home) | 0-2 | UEFA Champions League |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Moreirense(home) | 2-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Casa Pia(home) | 1-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 14, 2026 | SC Braga(away) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Arouca(home) | 0-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Benfica(away) | 1-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Rio Ave(home) | 0-2 | Primeira Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 FC Porto wins, 0 draws, 1 Estoril win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2026 | Estoril 1-3 FC Porto | Primeira Liga |
| Nov 30, 2025 | FC Porto 1-0 Estoril | Primeira Liga |
| Mar 30, 2025 | Estoril 1-2 FC Porto | Primeira Liga |
| Nov 3, 2024 | FC Porto 4-0 Estoril | Primeira Liga |
| Mar 30, 2024 | Estoril 1-0 FC Porto | Primeira Liga |
| Jan 9, 2024 | Estoril 0-4 FC Porto | Taça de Portugal |
How many goals should we expect?
FC Porto score 1.9 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Estoril score 0.5 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto | 1.9 | 0.7 | 7 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Estoril | 0.5 | 1.3 | 2 | 7/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
FC Porto sit 1st in Primeira Liga (21 points from 7 matches) and Estoril sit 18th (2 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 3 | 21 |
| 18 | Estoril | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 2 |
A question about FC Porto vs Estoril?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FC Porto vs Estoril?
- The Footlab AI model makes FC Porto the favourite at 77%, against 16% for a draw and 7% for Estoril.
- Where and when is FC Porto vs Estoril played?
- FC Porto vs Estoril is played on November 1, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Do Dragão, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.9% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.