Casa Pia vs Sporting CP: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 10Kick-off on November 1, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Nacional, Jamor, Oeiras
The Footlab AI model makes Sporting CP the favourite at 68%, against 19% for a draw and 13% for Casa Pia. The most likely score is 0-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Casa Pia vs Sporting CP?
Sporting CP is a heavy favourite: 2,482 Elo points against 2,041, a 441-point gap.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Casa Pia vs Sporting CP
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Casa Pia
4-2-3-1- 9Henrique Araújo
- 80L. Ofori
- 16Silvi
- 70João Pedro Seno Luís Rêgo
- 11M. El Boukammiri
- 77B. Pauwels
- 18Geraldes
- 43David Sousa
- 75Pedro Rosas
- 3Kaly
- 95Ivan Mandić
Sporting CP
4-2-3-1- 97L. Suárez
- 10Geny Catamo
- 5Sergi Altimira
- 77I. Doumbia
- 17R. Zalazar
- 58Flávio Gonçalves
- 20M. Araújo
- 25Gonçalo Inácio
- 22Iván Fresneda
- 13G. Vagiannidis
- 1Rui Silva
Known absences
Z. DebastOut · Injured
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 01:43 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Casa Pia have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Sporting CP have 11, 3 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Estoril(away) | 2-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | FC Porto(home) | 1-4 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Guimaraes(away) | 0-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Moreirense(home) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 24, 2026 | GIL Vicente(away) | 0-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Arouca(home) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Famalicao(away) | 1-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Galatasaray(home) | 3-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Nacional(home) | 2-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Rio Ave(away) | 4-0 | Primeira Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Casa Pia wins, 0 draws, 6 Sporting CP wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2026 | Sporting CP 3-0 Casa Pia | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 8, 2025 | Casa Pia 0-2 Sporting CP | Primeira Liga |
| Mar 9, 2025 | Casa Pia 1-3 Sporting CP | Primeira Liga |
| Oct 5, 2024 | Sporting CP 2-0 Casa Pia | Primeira Liga |
| Jan 29, 2024 | Sporting CP 8-0 Casa Pia | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 18, 2023 | Casa Pia 1-2 Sporting CP | Primeira Liga |
Last archived meeting: Sporting CP vs Casa Pia on Jan 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Casa Pia score 0.7 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Sporting CP score 3.0 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia | 0.7 | 1.7 | 4 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
| Sporting CP | 3.0 | 0.9 | 5 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Casa Pia sit 17th in Primeira Liga (4 points from 7 matches) and Sporting CP sit 3rd (15 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Sporting CP | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 17 | 8 | 15 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 16 | 4 |
A question about Casa Pia vs Sporting CP?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Casa Pia vs Sporting CP?
- The Footlab AI model makes Sporting CP the favourite at 68%, against 19% for a draw and 13% for Casa Pia.
- Where and when is Casa Pia vs Sporting CP played?
- Casa Pia vs Sporting CP is played on November 1, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Nacional, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.