Arouca vs Nacional: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 10Kick-off on November 1, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Arouca
The Footlab AI model makes Arouca the favourite at 63%, against 22% for a draw and 15% for Nacional. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Arouca vs Nacional?
Arouca starts as the favourite with a 123-point Elo edge (2,154 vs 2,031).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Arouca vs Nacional
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Arouca
4-2-3-1- 17Barbero
- 7N. Djouahra
- 19A. Trezza
- 8T. Fukui
- 6E. van Ee
- 10Pablo Gozálbez
- 28Tiago Esgaio
- 3José Fontán
- 18O. Lebedenko
- 15Javi Sánchez
- 12I. de Arruabarrena
Nacional
4-1-4-1- 99Pablo Ruan
- 6Matheus Dias
- 8Miguel Baeza
- 52Wesley Gasolina
- 7M. Jensen
- 21W. Kokolo
- 38Zé Vitor
- 33Francisco Gonçalves
- 34Léo Santos
- 5José Gomes
- 1Renato Bellucci
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 01:42 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arouca have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Nacional have 3, 4 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Sporting CP(away) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Santa Clara(home) | 1-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Estoril(away) | 0-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Maritimo(home) | 2-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 23, 2026 | FC Porto(away) | 0-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Famalicao(home) | 0-4 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Alverca(home) | 1-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Sporting CP(away) | 0-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Estrela(home) | 2-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Guimaraes(away) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Arouca wins, 1 draw, 1 Nacional win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2026 | Arouca 3-0 Nacional | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 20, 2025 | Nacional 1-2 Arouca | Primeira Liga |
| Feb 1, 2025 | Nacional 1-2 Arouca | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 25, 2024 | Arouca 1-0 Nacional | Primeira Liga |
| May 6, 2018 | Arouca 0-1 Nacional | Segunda Liga |
| Dec 22, 2017 | Nacional 2-2 Arouca | Segunda Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Arouca score 1.4 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Nacional score 1.1 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arouca | 1.4 | 1.1 | 6 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Nacional | 1.1 | 1.7 | 4 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Arouca sit 5th in Primeira Liga (11 points from 7 matches) and Nacional sit 15th (4 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Arouca | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 11 |
| 15 | Nacional | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 4 |
A question about Arouca vs Nacional?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Arouca vs Nacional?
- The Footlab AI model makes Arouca the favourite at 63%, against 22% for a draw and 15% for Nacional.
- Where and when is Arouca vs Nacional played?
- Arouca vs Nacional is played on November 1, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal de Arouca, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.