Moreirense vs Estrela: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 10Kick-off on November 1, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Moreira de Cónegos
The Footlab AI model makes Moreirense the favourite at 40%, against 26% for a draw and 34% for Estrela. The most likely score is 1-1. If Moreirense wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Moreirense vs Estrela?
A very open match: only 54 Elo points separate Moreirense (2,114) and Estrela (2,060).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Moreirense vs Estrela
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Moreirense
4-2-3-1- 79L. Vonić
- 23N. John
- 7Manuel Ascenção Bebiano Mendonça
- 65Guilherme Liberato
- 10Kiko Bondoso
- 19Tiago Andrade
- 66Gilberto Batista
- 27Kiko
- 26Maracás
- 76Dinis Pinto
- 13André Ferreira
Estrela
4-2-3-1- 37L. Antonetti
- 10I. Stoica
- 99A. Marcus
- 14L. Zvonarek
- 39Eddy Doue
- 78Santiago Serra
- 55Rafa Soares
- 5S. Leković
- 21M. Scholze
- 4Bernardo Schappo
- 24Léo Linck
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 01:42 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Moreirense have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Estrela have 6, 7 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Guimaraes(away) | 1-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Maritimo(home) | 3-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Benfica(home) | 0-4 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 4, 2026 | FC Porto(away) | 1-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Casa Pia(away) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Academico Viseu(home) | 0-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Rio Ave(away) | 3-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 10, 2026 | SC Braga(home) | 2-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Famalicao(home) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Nacional(away) | 3-2 | Primeira Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Moreirense wins, 3 draws, 1 Estrela win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 2, 2026 | Moreirense 3-2 Estrela | Primeira Liga |
| Dec 20, 2025 | Estrela 0-0 Moreirense | Primeira Liga |
| Mar 2, 2025 | Moreirense 1-1 Estrela | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 28, 2024 | Estrela 2-1 Moreirense | Primeira Liga |
| Apr 7, 2024 | Moreirense 2-2 Estrela | Primeira Liga |
| Nov 11, 2023 | Estrela 0-1 Moreirense | Primeira Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Moreirense score 1.3 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Estrela score 1.9 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense | 1.3 | 1.9 | 3 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Estrela | 1.9 | 1.5 | 3 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Moreirense sit 12th in Primeira Liga (8 points from 7 matches) and Estrela sit 8th (10 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Estrela | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 14 | 14 | 10 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 14 | 8 |
A question about Moreirense vs Estrela?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Moreirense vs Estrela?
- The Footlab AI model makes Moreirense the favourite at 40%, against 26% for a draw and 34% for Estrela.
- Where and when is Moreirense vs Estrela played?
- Moreirense vs Estrela is played on November 1, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.