FC Saarbrücken vs MSV Duisburg: prediction and stats
3. LigaRegular Season - 9Kick-off on October 13, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Ludwigspark, Saarbrücken
The Footlab model makes MSV Duisburg the favourite at 38%, against 25% for a draw and 37% for FC Saarbrücken. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FC Saarbrücken vs MSV Duisburg?
MSV Duisburg starts as the favourite with a 121-point Elo edge (2,032 vs 1,911).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FC Saarbrücken have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; MSV Duisburg have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Hertha BSC(home) | 1-1 | DFB Pokal |
| Aug 16, 2026 | SSV Jahn Regensburg(away) | 1-0 | 3. Liga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Rot-Weiß Essen(home) | 5-2 | 3. Liga |
| Jul 26, 2026 | VfR Aalen(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | FC Augsburg(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | SV Elversberg(home) | 1-3 | DFB Pokal |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Verl(away) | 4-2 | 3. Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | SV Meppen(home) | 3-0 | 3. Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Sparta Rotterdam(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Arminia Bielefeld(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 FC Saarbrücken win(s), 3 draw(s), 3 MSV Duisburg win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | MSV Duisburg 4-2 FC Saarbrücken | 3. Liga |
| Sep 30, 2025 | FC Saarbrücken 0-0 MSV Duisburg | 3. Liga |
| Mar 16, 2024 | MSV Duisburg 2-0 FC Saarbrücken | 3. Liga |
| Nov 29, 2023 | FC Saarbrücken 0-0 MSV Duisburg | 3. Liga |
| May 21, 2023 | MSV Duisburg 2-2 FC Saarbrücken | 3. Liga |
| Jan 14, 2023 | FC Saarbrücken 2-3 MSV Duisburg | 3. Liga |
Last archived meeting: MSV Duisburg vs FC Saarbrücken on Mar 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
FC Saarbrücken score 1.5 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; MSV Duisburg score 1.8 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Saarbrücken | 1.5 | 1.3 | 5 | 9/15 | 5/15 |
| MSV Duisburg | 1.8 | 1.3 | 4 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
FC Saarbrücken sit 2nd in 3. Liga (6 points from 2 matches) and MSV Duisburg sit 1st (6 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MSV Duisburg | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 6 |
| 2 | FC Saarbrücken | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FC Saarbrücken vs MSV Duisburg?
- The Footlab model makes MSV Duisburg the favourite at 38%, against 25% for a draw and 37% for FC Saarbrücken.
- Where and when is FC Saarbrücken vs MSV Duisburg played?
- FC Saarbrücken vs MSV Duisburg is played on October 13, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Ludwigspark, in the 3. Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 13, 2026Preußen MünstervsFortuna Düsseldorf
- Oct 13, 2026SV WehenvsAlemannia Aachen
- Oct 13, 2026Hansa RostockvsSV Meppen
- Oct 13, 2026FC Viktoria KölnvsSG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
- Oct 13, 2026Rot-Weiß EssenvsFortuna Köln
- Oct 13, 2026VerlvsSSV Jahn Regensburg
- Oct 13, 2026Waldhof MannheimvsFC Ingolstadt 04
- Oct 13, 2026HavelsevsWürzburger Kickers