FC Tallinn vs Tartu Welco: prediction and stats
Esiliiga ARegular Season - 32Kick-off on October 15, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Lasnamäe SPK kunstmuruväljak, Tallinn
The Footlab model makes Tartu Welco the favourite at 66%, against 18% for a draw and 16% for FC Tallinn. The most likely score is 1-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FC Tallinn vs Tartu Welco?
Tartu Welco starts as the favourite with a 182-point Elo edge (1,450 vs 1,267).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FC Tallinn have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Tartu Welco have 10, 1 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | FCI Levadia II(away) | 1-2 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Nõmme United II(home) | 1-1 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Maardu(away) | 0-1 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Tallinna Kalev(away) | 1-1 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Flora II(home) | 1-0 | Esiliiga A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Nõmme Kalju II(away) | 4-2 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 20, 2026 | FCI Levadia II(home) | 4-2 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Flora II(home) | 2-1 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Kose(away) | 8-0 | Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Elva(away) | 1-2 | Esiliiga A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 FC Tallinn win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Tartu Welco win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 18, 2026 | Tartu Welco 0-2 FC Tallinn | Esiliiga A |
| Jun 13, 2026 | Tartu Welco 4-0 FC Tallinn | Esiliiga A |
| May 1, 2026 | FC Tallinn 0-2 Tartu Welco | Esiliiga A |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Tartu Welco 2-2 FC Tallinn | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 23, 2025 | FC Tallinn 0-2 Tartu Welco | Esiliiga A |
| Jul 5, 2025 | FC Tallinn 1-5 Tartu Welco | Esiliiga A |
Last archived meeting: Tartu Welco vs FC Tallinn on Jul 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
FC Tallinn score 1.2 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Tartu Welco score 3.3 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 74% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Tallinn | 1.2 | 1.7 | 3 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Tartu Welco | 3.3 | 1.6 | 3 | 11/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
FC Tallinn sit 10th in Esiliiga A (14 points from 16 matches) and Tartu Welco sit 1st (38 points from 16 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tartu Welco | 16 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 47 | 19 | 38 |
| 1 | Tartu Welco | 25 | 17 | 3 | 5 | 74 | 35 | 54 |
| 9 | FC Tallinn | 25 | 6 | 7 | 12 | 31 | 54 | 25 |
| 10 | FC Tallinn | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 21 | 39 | 14 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FC Tallinn vs Tartu Welco?
- The Footlab model makes Tartu Welco the favourite at 66%, against 18% for a draw and 16% for FC Tallinn.
- Where and when is FC Tallinn vs Tartu Welco played?
- FC Tallinn vs Tartu Welco is played on October 15, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Lasnamäe SPK kunstmuruväljak, in the Esiliiga A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 74% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.