Flora II vs Nõmme United II: prediction and stats
Esiliiga ARegular Season - 32Kick-off on October 15, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Sportland Arena, Tallinn
The Footlab model makes Flora II the favourite at 53%, against 21% for a draw and 27% for Nõmme United II. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Flora II vs Nõmme United II?
A very open match: only 94 Elo points separate Flora II (1,373) and Nõmme United II (1,279).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Flora II have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Nõmme United II have 3, 3 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Elva(away) | 0-0 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Viimsi(home) | 2-1 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Tartu Welco(away) | 1-2 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Nõmme Kalju II(home) | 3-0 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 1, 2026 | FC Tallinn(away) | 0-1 | Esiliiga A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Viimsi(away) | 1-4 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 20, 2026 | FC Tallinn(away) | 1-1 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Nõmme Kalju II(home) | 2-0 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 8, 2026 | FCI Levadia II(home) | 1-2 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Tartu Welco(home) | 2-1 | Esiliiga A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 0 Flora II win(s), 3 draw(s), 0 Nõmme United II win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 12, 2026 | Nõmme United II 1-1 Flora II | Esiliiga A |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Nõmme United II 3-3 Flora II | Esiliiga A |
| May 13, 2026 | Flora II 2-2 Nõmme United II | Esiliiga A |
Last archived meeting: Nõmme United II vs Flora II on Jul 12, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Flora II score 1.8 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Nõmme United II score 1.5 and concede 2.5. The model gives a 76% probability of over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flora II | 1.8 | 1.3 | 5 | 8/15 | 11/15 |
| Nõmme United II | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2 | 12/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Flora II sit 3rd in Esiliiga A (26 points from 13 matches) and Nõmme United II sit 6th (18 points from 14 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Flora II | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 36 | 24 | 26 |
| 3 | Flora II | 25 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 57 | 42 | 41 |
| 6 | Nõmme United II | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 26 | 29 | 18 |
| 8 | Nõmme United II | 25 | 7 | 6 | 12 | 43 | 56 | 27 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Flora II vs Nõmme United II?
- The Footlab model makes Flora II the favourite at 53%, against 21% for a draw and 27% for Nõmme United II.
- Where and when is Flora II vs Nõmme United II played?
- Flora II vs Nõmme United II is played on October 15, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Sportland Arena, in the Esiliiga A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 76% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.