Elva vs Tallinna Kalev: prediction and stats
Esiliiga ARegular Season - 32Kick-off on October 15, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Elva linnastaadion, Elva
The Footlab model makes Elva the favourite at 44%, against 24% for a draw and 32% for Tallinna Kalev. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Elva vs Tallinna Kalev?
A very open match: only 17 Elo points separate Elva (1,384) and Tallinna Kalev (1,367).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Elva have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Tallinna Kalev have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Flora II(home) | 0-0 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Maardu(home) | 1-0 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Tallinna Kalev(away) | 0-1 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Joker(home) | 3-0 | Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Tartu Welco(home) | 2-1 | Esiliiga A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Maardu(home) | 1-3 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Nõmme Kalju II(away) | 3-0 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Elva(home) | 1-0 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Tartu Kalev(home) | 8-0 | Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | FC Tallinn(home) | 1-1 | Esiliiga A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Elva win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Tallinna Kalev win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Tallinna Kalev 1-0 Elva | Esiliiga A |
| May 24, 2026 | Elva 3-1 Tallinna Kalev | Esiliiga A |
| Apr 9, 2026 | Tallinna Kalev 2-1 Elva | Esiliiga A |
| Oct 30, 2025 | Elva 1-2 Tallinna Kalev | Cup |
| Jan 29, 2023 | Elva 0-0 Tallinna Kalev | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 29, 2021 | Elva 1-2 Tallinna Kalev | Esiliiga A |
Last archived meeting: Tallinna Kalev vs Elva on Aug 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Elva score 2.0 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Tallinna Kalev score 2.7 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elva | 2.0 | 1.1 | 6 | 5/15 | 10/15 |
| Tallinna Kalev | 2.7 | 1.5 | 4 | 10/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Elva sit 4th in Esiliiga A (23 points from 16 matches) and Tallinna Kalev sit 5th (18 points from 16 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Elva | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 29 | 27 | 23 |
| 4 | Elva | 25 | 11 | 5 | 9 | 42 | 37 | 38 |
| 5 | Tallinna Kalev | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 27 | 32 | 18 |
| 5 | Tallinna Kalev | 25 | 10 | 5 | 10 | 48 | 45 | 35 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Elva vs Tallinna Kalev?
- The Footlab model makes Elva the favourite at 44%, against 24% for a draw and 32% for Tallinna Kalev.
- Where and when is Elva vs Tallinna Kalev played?
- Elva vs Tallinna Kalev is played on October 15, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Elva linnastaadion, in the Esiliiga A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.