Fenerbahçe vs Galatasaray: prediction and stats
Süper LigRegular Season - 26Kick-off on March 21, 2027 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Chobani Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, İstanbul
The Footlab model makes Fenerbahçe the favourite at 49%, against 24% for a draw and 27% for Galatasaray. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Fenerbahçe vs Galatasaray?
A very open match: only 49 Elo points separate Fenerbahçe (2,207) and Galatasaray (2,158).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Fenerbahçe have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Galatasaray have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Konyaspor(home) | 4-2 | Süper Lig |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Lyon(home) | 1-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Gençlerbirliği S.K.(away) | 1-2 | Süper Lig |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Sturm Graz(away) | 1-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Sturm Graz(home) | 2-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Erzurumspor FK(away) | 4-0 | Süper Lig |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Çorum FK(home) | 2-2 | Süper Lig |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Villarreal(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Rennes(home) | 3-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Venezia(home) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Fenerbahçe win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Galatasaray win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2026 | Galatasaray 3-0 Fenerbahçe | Süper Lig |
| Jan 10, 2026 | Galatasaray 0-2 Fenerbahçe | Super Cup |
| Dec 1, 2025 | Fenerbahçe 1-1 Galatasaray | Süper Lig |
| Apr 2, 2025 | Fenerbahçe 1-2 Galatasaray | Türkiye Kupası |
| Feb 24, 2025 | Galatasaray 0-0 Fenerbahçe | Süper Lig |
| Sep 21, 2024 | Fenerbahçe 1-3 Galatasaray | Süper Lig |
Last archived meeting: Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe on Apr 26, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Fenerbahçe score 2.1 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Galatasaray score 1.9 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahçe | 2.1 | 1.0 | 6 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Galatasaray | 1.9 | 1.7 | 2 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Fenerbahçe sit 8th in Süper Lig (3 points from 2 matches) and Galatasaray sit 2nd (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Galatasaray | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 4 |
| 8 | Fenerbahçe | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Fenerbahçe vs Galatasaray?
- The Footlab model makes Fenerbahçe the favourite at 49%, against 24% for a draw and 27% for Galatasaray.
- Where and when is Fenerbahçe vs Galatasaray played?
- Fenerbahçe vs Galatasaray is played on March 21, 2027 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Chobani Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, in the Süper Lig.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.