Match

Figueirense vs Joinville: prediction and stats

Copa Santa CatarinaGroup Stage - 8Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Orlando Scarpelli, Florianópolis, Santa Catarina

FigueirenseJoinville

The Footlab AI model makes Figueirense the favourite at 61%, against 22% for a draw and 17% for Joinville. The most likely score is 1-1. If Figueirense wins, the most likely score is 2-0.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Figueirense vs Joinville?

Figueirense starts as the favourite with a 155-point Elo edge (1,693 vs 1,539).

61%22%17%
Figueirense winDrawJoinville win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Figueirense vs Joinville

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Figueirense

4-3-3
  1. 99Émerson Galego
  2. 70Igor Bolt
  3. 17Mailson
  1. 8Dudu
  2. 22Vitor Ricardo
  3. 14Breno
  1. 6Arthur Henrique
  2. 7Raynan
  3. 3Leonan Santos
  4. 37Lucas Dias
  1. 12Fabrício

Joinville

4-2-3-1
  1. 7Iago Dias
  1. 10Gabriel Terra
  2. 8Para
  3. 9Keké
  4. 5Yalle
  5. 11João Victor
  1. 6Natanael
  2. 2Toty
  3. 3Vitao
  4. 4Gutieri
  1. 1Thiago

Computed on October 9, 2026 at 01:43 AM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Figueirense have 8 wins, 6 draws and 1 defeat; Joinville have 7, 3 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Figueirense
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Sep 27, 2026Metropolitano(away)1-0Copa Santa Catarina
Sep 20, 2026Santa Catarina(away)2-1Copa Santa Catarina
Sep 12, 2026Nação(home)1-0Copa Santa Catarina
Sep 5, 2026Barra(home)1-1Copa Santa Catarina
Aug 29, 2026Maranhão(home)2-1Serie C
Joinville
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Sep 26, 2026Barra(home)2-1Copa Santa Catarina
Sep 19, 2026Nação(away)4-0Copa Santa Catarina
Sep 12, 2026Hercílio Luz(home)1-3Copa Santa Catarina
Sep 5, 2026Blumenau(home)1-0Copa Santa Catarina
Aug 30, 2026Marcílio Dias(away)2-4Copa Santa Catarina

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Figueirense wins, 1 draw, 0 Joinville wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Feb 27, 2026Joinville 0-3 FigueirenseCatarinense - 1
Feb 6, 2026Figueirense 1-0 JoinvilleCatarinense - 1
Jan 7, 2026Joinville 2-3 FigueirenseCatarinense - 1
Nov 23, 2025Figueirense 2-1 JoinvilleCopa Santa Catarina
Nov 16, 2025Joinville 1-4 FigueirenseCopa Santa Catarina
Jan 11, 2025Joinville 0-0 FigueirenseCatarinense - 1

Last archived meeting: Joinville vs Figueirense on Feb 27, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Figueirense score 1.2 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Joinville score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Figueirense1.20.869/157/15
Joinville1.31.167/157/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

A question about Figueirense vs Joinville?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Figueirense vs Joinville?
The Footlab AI model makes Figueirense the favourite at 61%, against 22% for a draw and 17% for Joinville.
Where and when is Figueirense vs Joinville played?
Figueirense vs Joinville is played on October 25, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Orlando Scarpelli, in the Copa Santa Catarina.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

Other matches in the same round

Next match: Figueirense and Joinville

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