Hercílio Luz vs Blumenau: prediction and stats
Copa Santa CatarinaGroup Stage - 8Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Aníbal Torres Costa, Tubarão, Santa Catarina
The Footlab model makes Hercílio Luz the favourite at 51%, against 24% for a draw and 25% for Blumenau. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Hercílio Luz vs Blumenau?
A very open match: only 98 Elo points separate Hercílio Luz (1,781) and Blumenau (1,683).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Hercílio Luz have 12 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeats; Blumenau have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 25, 2026 | Nação(away) | 2-1 | Catarinense - 2 |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Caravaggio(home) | 0-0 | Catarinense - 2 |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Tubarao(away) | 2-0 | Catarinense - 2 |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Juventus SC(home) | 1-0 | Catarinense - 2 |
| Jul 8, 2026 | Blumenau(away) | 2-0 | Catarinense - 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 22, 2026 | Nação(home) | 0-2 | Catarinense - 2 |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Guarani de Palhoça(away) | 1-1 | Catarinense - 2 |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Metropolitano(home) | 4-1 | Catarinense - 2 |
| Jul 8, 2026 | Hercílio Luz(home) | 0-2 | Catarinense - 2 |
| Jul 5, 2026 | Fluminense-SC(away) | 1-1 | Catarinense - 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Hercílio Luz win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Blumenau win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 8, 2026 | Blumenau 0-2 Hercílio Luz | Catarinense - 2 |
| May 13, 2026 | Hercílio Luz 0-1 Blumenau | Catarinense - 2 |
Last archived meeting: Blumenau vs Hercílio Luz on Jul 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Hercílio Luz score 2.1 and concede 0.5 goals per match over their last 15; Blumenau score 1.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hercílio Luz | 2.1 | 0.5 | 9 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
| Blumenau | 1.9 | 1.1 | 3 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Hercílio Luz vs Blumenau?
- The Footlab model makes Hercílio Luz the favourite at 51%, against 24% for a draw and 25% for Blumenau.
- Where and when is Hercílio Luz vs Blumenau played?
- Hercílio Luz vs Blumenau is played on October 25, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Aníbal Torres Costa, in the Copa Santa Catarina.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.