Hercílio Luz vs Blumenau: prediction and stats
Copa Santa CatarinaGroup Stage - 8Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Aníbal Torres Costa, Tubarão, Santa Catarina
The Footlab AI model makes Hercílio Luz the favourite at 51%, against 23% for a draw and 26% for Blumenau. The most likely score is 1-1. If Hercílio Luz wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,505 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Hercílio Luz vs Blumenau?
Hercílio Luz starts as the favourite with a 124-point Elo edge (1,686 vs 1,563).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Hercílio Luz vs Blumenau
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Hercílio Luz
Not enough data to predict the Hercílio Luz lineup.
Blumenau
Not enough data to predict the Blumenau lineup.
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 09:39 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Hercílio Luz have 12 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats; Blumenau have 2, 7 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Figueirense(away) | 0-1 | Copa Santa Catarina |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Nação(home) | 2-1 | Copa Santa Catarina |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Marcílio Dias(away) | 2-4 | Copa Santa Catarina |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Joinville(away) | 3-1 | Copa Santa Catarina |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Metropolitano(home) | 4-2 | Copa Santa Catarina |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26, 2026 | Marcílio Dias(home) | 1-1 | Copa Santa Catarina |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Metropolitano(home) | 0-1 | Copa Santa Catarina |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Barra(away) | 2-2 | Copa Santa Catarina |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Joinville(away) | 0-1 | Copa Santa Catarina |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Santa Catarina(home) | 0-1 | Copa Santa Catarina |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Hercílio Luz win, 0 draws, 1 Blumenau win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 8, 2026 | Blumenau 0-2 Hercílio Luz | Catarinense - 2 |
| May 13, 2026 | Hercílio Luz 0-1 Blumenau | Catarinense - 2 |
Last archived meeting: Blumenau vs Hercílio Luz on Jul 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Hercílio Luz score 2.1 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Blumenau score 1.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hercílio Luz | 2.1 | 0.9 | 6 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Blumenau | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0 | 10/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
A question about Hercílio Luz vs Blumenau?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Hercílio Luz vs Blumenau?
- The Footlab AI model makes Hercílio Luz the favourite at 51%, against 23% for a draw and 26% for Blumenau.
- Where and when is Hercílio Luz vs Blumenau played?
- Hercílio Luz vs Blumenau is played on October 25, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Aníbal Torres Costa, in the Copa Santa Catarina.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.