Metropolitano vs Nação: prediction and stats
Copa Santa CatarinaGroup Stage - 8Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 10:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Genésio Ayres Marchetti, Ibirama, Santa Catarina
The Footlab AI model makes Metropolitano the favourite at 67%, against 19% for a draw and 14% for Nação. The most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 3,050 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 23, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Metropolitano vs Nação?
Metropolitano starts as the favourite with a 145-point Elo edge (1,515 vs 1,370).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Metropolitano vs Nação
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Metropolitano
4-3-3- DDaniel Bahia
- CC. Ebere
- GGabriel Lima
- GGustavo França
- JJardel Anderson Monteiro Viana
- TThiago de Lima
- CCarlos Augusto Pereira de Morais
- LLázio Nunes Vieira
- RRamon
- BBrendo
- MMártin Becker
Nação
4-3-3- VVinícius Felício
- PP. Heumo
- RRobson
- RRenê
- JJair
- BBrendon
- 6Paulo Fales
- WWillian Bahia
- SScottini
- LLuiz Gustavo
- OOmar
Computed on October 23, 2026 at 03:23 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Metropolitano have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Nação have 2, 6 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Santa Catarina(home) | 3-0 | Copa Santa Catarina |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Barra(away) | 3-3 | Copa Santa Catarina |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Figueirense(home) | 0-1 | Copa Santa Catarina |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Blumenau(away) | 1-0 | Copa Santa Catarina |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Marcílio Dias(home) | 2-5 | Copa Santa Catarina |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Blumenau(home) | 0-1 | Copa Santa Catarina |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Marcílio Dias(home) | 0-0 | Copa Santa Catarina |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Hercílio Luz(away) | 1-2 | Copa Santa Catarina |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Barra(away) | 3-3 | Copa Santa Catarina |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Joinville(home) | 0-4 | Copa Santa Catarina |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 2 Metropolitano wins, 2 draws, 1 Nação win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 28, 2026 | Nação 0-0 Metropolitano | Catarinense - 2 |
| May 6, 2026 | Metropolitano 5-2 Nação | Catarinense - 2 |
| Jun 15, 2025 | Metropolitano 4-2 Nação | Catarinense - 2 |
| Jul 23, 2023 | Nação 3-2 Metropolitano | Catarinense - 2 |
| Jun 4, 2022 | Metropolitano 0-0 Nação | Catarinense - 2 |
Last archived meeting: Nação vs Metropolitano on Jun 28, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Metropolitano score 2.1 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Nação score 0.9 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 68% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metropolitano | 2.1 | 1.7 | 5 | 8/15 | 11/15 |
| Nação | 0.9 | 1.3 | 5 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
A question about Metropolitano vs Nação?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Metropolitano vs Nação?
- The Footlab AI model makes Metropolitano the favourite at 67%, against 19% for a draw and 14% for Nação.
- Where and when is Metropolitano vs Nação played?
- Metropolitano vs Nação is played on October 24, 2026 at 10:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Genésio Ayres Marchetti, in the Copa Santa Catarina.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 68% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.