Metropolitano vs Nação: prediction and stats
Copa Santa CatarinaGroup Stage - 8Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Genésio Ayres Marchetti, Ibirama, Santa Catarina
The Footlab model makes Metropolitano the favourite at 65%, against 20% for a draw and 15% for Nação. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Metropolitano vs Nação?
Metropolitano starts as the favourite with a 123-point Elo edge (1,669 vs 1,546).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Metropolitano have 10 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats; Nação have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 25, 2026 | Fluminense-SC(home) | 3-0 | Catarinense - 2 |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Juventus SC(away) | 2-0 | Catarinense - 2 |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Jaraguá(home) | 6-1 | Catarinense - 2 |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Blumenau(away) | 1-4 | Catarinense - 2 |
| Jul 12, 2026 | Tubarao(away) | 3-2 | Catarinense - 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 25, 2026 | Hercílio Luz(home) | 1-2 | Catarinense - 2 |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Blumenau(away) | 2-0 | Catarinense - 2 |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Caravaggio(home) | 2-2 | Catarinense - 2 |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Jaraguá(away) | 2-0 | Catarinense - 2 |
| Jul 12, 2026 | Fluminense-SC(home) | 1-2 | Catarinense - 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 2 Metropolitano win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Nação win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 28, 2026 | Nação 0-0 Metropolitano | Catarinense - 2 |
| May 6, 2026 | Metropolitano 5-2 Nação | Catarinense - 2 |
| Jun 15, 2025 | Metropolitano 4-2 Nação | Catarinense - 2 |
| Jul 23, 2023 | Nação 3-2 Metropolitano | Catarinense - 2 |
| Jun 4, 2022 | Metropolitano 0-0 Nação | Catarinense - 2 |
Last archived meeting: Nação vs Metropolitano on Jun 28, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Metropolitano score 2.0 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Nação score 1.0 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metropolitano | 2.0 | 1.1 | 6 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
| Nação | 1.0 | 1.3 | 7 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Metropolitano vs Nação?
- The Footlab model makes Metropolitano the favourite at 65%, against 20% for a draw and 15% for Nação.
- Where and when is Metropolitano vs Nação played?
- Metropolitano vs Nação is played on October 25, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Genésio Ayres Marchetti, in the Copa Santa Catarina.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.