Barra vs Santa Catarina: prediction and stats
Copa Santa CatarinaGroup Stage - 8Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Doutor Hercílio Luz, Itajaí, Santa Catarina
The Footlab model makes Barra the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 33% for Santa Catarina. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Barra vs Santa Catarina?
A very open match: only 51 Elo points separate Barra (1,734) and Santa Catarina (1,784).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Barra have 3 wins, 4 draws and 8 defeats; Santa Catarina have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Maringá(away) | 1-2 | Serie C |
| Aug 16, 2026 | AO Itabaiana(home) | 1-0 | Serie C |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Ituano(away) | 0-2 | Serie C |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Ypiranga-RS(away) | 0-1 | Serie C |
| Jul 12, 2026 | Santa Cruz(home) | 1-2 | Serie C |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 27, 2026 | Sao Jose(home) | 1-1 | Serie D |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Sao Jose(away) | 1-1 | Serie D |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Cascavel(home) | 1-0 | Serie D |
| May 31, 2026 | Cianorte(away) | 3-1 | Serie D |
| May 23, 2026 | São Luiz(home) | 1-0 | Serie D |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 1 Barra win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Santa Catarina win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2026 | Santa Catarina 0-1 Barra | Catarinense - 1 |
| Jan 31, 2026 | Barra 1-1 Santa Catarina | Catarinense - 1 |
| Jan 23, 2025 | Barra 2-2 Santa Catarina | Catarinense - 1 |
Last archived meeting: Santa Catarina vs Barra on Feb 7, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Barra score 0.9 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Santa Catarina score 1.2 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barra | 0.9 | 1.2 | 3 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Santa Catarina | 1.2 | 1.1 | 5 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Barra vs Santa Catarina?
- The Footlab model makes Barra the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 33% for Santa Catarina.
- Where and when is Barra vs Santa Catarina played?
- Barra vs Santa Catarina is played on October 25, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Doutor Hercílio Luz, in the Copa Santa Catarina.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.