Finn Harps vs Athlone Town: prediction and stats
First DivisionRegular Season - 30Kick-off on September 4, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Finn Park, Ballybofey
The Footlab model makes Athlone Town the favourite at 48%, against 28% for a draw and 24% for Finn Harps. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Finn Harps vs Athlone Town?
A very open match: only 93 Elo points separate Finn Harps (1,189) and Athlone Town (1,283).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Finn Harps have 2 wins, 2 draws and 11 defeats; Athlone Town have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Cobh Ramblers(home) | 1-3 | First Division |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Bray Wanderers(away) | 0-5 | First Division |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Longford Town(away) | 0-5 | First Division |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Cork City(home) | 0-3 | First Division |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Kerry(away) | 1-2 | First Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Wexford(away) | 2-0 | First Division |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Waterford(away) | 1-2 | FAI Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Longford Town(home) | 2-1 | First Division |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Cork City(away) | 2-3 | First Division |
| Jul 31, 2026 | UCD(home) | 0-0 | First Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Finn Harps win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Athlone Town win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 26, 2026 | Athlone Town 1-1 Finn Harps | First Division |
| Apr 24, 2026 | Finn Harps 1-2 Athlone Town | First Division |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Athlone Town 2-1 Finn Harps | First Division |
| Aug 22, 2025 | Finn Harps 2-1 Athlone Town | First Division |
| Jun 20, 2025 | Athlone Town 0-0 Finn Harps | First Division |
| May 9, 2025 | Finn Harps 0-2 Athlone Town | First Division |
Last archived meeting: Athlone Town vs Finn Harps on Jun 26, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Finn Harps score 0.5 and concede 2.5 goals per match over their last 15; Athlone Town score 1.1 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finn Harps | 0.5 | 2.5 | 2 | 5/15 | 10/15 |
| Athlone Town | 1.1 | 1.2 | 4 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Finn Harps sit 9th in First Division (18 points from 20 matches) and Athlone Town sit 7th (23 points from 20 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Athlone Town | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 18 | 25 | 23 |
| 7 | Athlone Town | 28 | 9 | 7 | 12 | 28 | 33 | 34 |
| 9 | Finn Harps | 20 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 18 | 36 | 18 |
| 10 | Finn Harps | 28 | 5 | 7 | 16 | 22 | 56 | 22 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Finn Harps vs Athlone Town?
- The Footlab model makes Athlone Town the favourite at 48%, against 28% for a draw and 24% for Finn Harps.
- Where and when is Finn Harps vs Athlone Town played?
- Finn Harps vs Athlone Town is played on September 4, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Finn Park, in the First Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.