Treaty United vs Wexford: prediction and stats
First DivisionRegular Season - 30Kick-off on September 4, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Markets Field, Limerick
The Footlab model makes Treaty United the favourite at 46%, against 28% for a draw and 26% for Wexford. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Treaty United vs Wexford?
A very open match: only 15 Elo points separate Treaty United (1,312) and Wexford (1,297).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Treaty United have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Wexford have 3, 3 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Cork City(home) | 2-2 | First Division |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Cobh Ramblers(away) | 0-2 | First Division |
| Aug 3, 2026 | UCD(away) | 2-1 | First Division |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Longford Town(home) | 0-1 | First Division |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Athlone Town(home) | 2-1 | First Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Athlone Town(home) | 0-2 | First Division |
| Aug 7, 2026 | UCD(away) | 1-4 | First Division |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Bray Wanderers(home) | 2-1 | First Division |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Cobh Ramblers(away) | 0-1 | First Division |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Longford Town(away) | 2-1 | First Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Treaty United win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Wexford win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 26, 2026 | Wexford 0-0 Treaty United | First Division |
| May 4, 2026 | Treaty United 1-0 Wexford | First Division |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Wexford 3-2 Treaty United | First Division |
| Oct 17, 2025 | Wexford 0-2 Treaty United | First Division |
| Jun 23, 2025 | Treaty United 0-0 Wexford | First Division |
| Apr 21, 2025 | Wexford 2-0 Treaty United | First Division |
Last archived meeting: Wexford vs Treaty United on Jun 26, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Treaty United score 1.1 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Wexford score 0.9 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Treaty United | 1.1 | 1.5 | 3 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| Wexford | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Treaty United sit 10th in First Division (16 points from 20 matches) and Wexford sit 5th (26 points from 20 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Wexford | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 25 | 29 | 26 |
| 8 | Wexford | 28 | 9 | 7 | 12 | 32 | 41 | 34 |
| 9 | Treaty United | 28 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 28 | 41 | 30 |
| 10 | Treaty United | 20 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 19 | 33 | 16 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Treaty United vs Wexford?
- The Footlab model makes Treaty United the favourite at 46%, against 28% for a draw and 26% for Wexford.
- Where and when is Treaty United vs Wexford played?
- Treaty United vs Wexford is played on September 4, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Markets Field, in the First Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.