FK Neftekhimik vs Arsenal Tula: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 26Kick-off on April 10, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Neftekhimik, Nizhnekamsk
The Footlab model makes FK Neftekhimik the favourite at 37%, against 30% for a draw and 33% for Arsenal Tula. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FK Neftekhimik vs Arsenal Tula?
A very open match: only 18 Elo points separate FK Neftekhimik (1,753) and Arsenal Tula (1,771).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FK Neftekhimik have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Arsenal Tula have 3, 6 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Rotor Volgograd(away) | 1-0 | First League |
| Aug 20, 2026 | FC Sochi(home) | 1-2 | First League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Shinnik Yaroslavl(home) | 0-2 | First League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Nizhny Novgorod(away) | 1-5 | First League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Tekstilshchik(home) | 1-0 | First League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Veles(away) | 0-2 | First League |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Rotor Volgograd(home) | 2-1 | First League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Leningradets(away) | 0-0 | First League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Shinnik Yaroslavl(away) | 2-2 | First League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Torpedo Moskva(home) | 1-0 | First League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 FK Neftekhimik win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Arsenal Tula win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 19, 2026 | Arsenal Tula 0-1 FK Neftekhimik | First League |
| Nov 30, 2025 | Arsenal Tula 0-0 FK Neftekhimik | First League |
| Sep 29, 2025 | FK Neftekhimik 1-0 Arsenal Tula | First League |
| Nov 16, 2024 | FK Neftekhimik 2-2 Arsenal Tula | First League |
| Aug 11, 2024 | Arsenal Tula 1-1 FK Neftekhimik | First League |
| May 11, 2024 | Arsenal Tula 1-0 FK Neftekhimik | First League |
Last archived meeting: Arsenal Tula vs FK Neftekhimik on Jul 19, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
FK Neftekhimik score 0.8 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Arsenal Tula score 0.9 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Neftekhimik | 0.8 | 1.4 | 5 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
| Arsenal Tula | 0.9 | 1.6 | 2 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
FK Neftekhimik sit 12th in First League (9 points from 8 matches) and Arsenal Tula sit 9th (11 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Arsenal Tula | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 11 |
| 12 | FK Neftekhimik | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 9 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FK Neftekhimik vs Arsenal Tula?
- The Footlab model makes FK Neftekhimik the favourite at 37%, against 30% for a draw and 33% for Arsenal Tula.
- Where and when is FK Neftekhimik vs Arsenal Tula played?
- FK Neftekhimik vs Arsenal Tula is played on April 10, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Neftekhimik, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.